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  • A Second Trump Term Would be a Disaster

    A Second Trump Term Would be a Disaster

    It is time to get real about the danger of a Trump presidency

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    This image or media was taken or created by Matt H. Wade. To see his entire portfolio, click here.@thatmattwade This image is protected by copyright! If you would like to use it, please read this first., CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

    With the upcoming election this November and polling averages showing a slight lead for Trump, many Americans loathe to look at the ongoing 2020 rematch. For some, it feels like they are being forced to choose between the lesser of two evils yet again. Frustrated with this, many Americans have had political amnesia about the severity of Trump’s time as President and are missing the threat that a second Trump administration poses. Make no mistake, if Trump is elected come November, his administration will be an unmitigated disaster.

    Corruption in the White House

    Throughout Trump’s time in office, he undermined the guard rails of our democracy and was notoriously corrupt. Before he assumed office, then-President-Elect Trump made it abundantly clear that he didn’t respect the guard rails on his financial dealings, refusing to put his business into a blind trust, as every President before him had done. Instead, he put his sons, Eric and Don Jr., in charge of a trust, effectively ensuring that he was not entirely separated from his business while President.

    Despite claims by the former President that he could be trusted to separate himself from his finances, later reporting demonstrated otherwise. House Democrats on the Committee on Oversight and Accountability released a report titled “White House for Sale: How Princes, Prime Ministers , and Premiers Paid Off President Trump,” which revealed that Trump received an estimated at least $7.8 million from foreign governments, including China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malaysia, Albania and Kosovo.

    Such payments were almost certainly a violation of the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits federal officials from taking gifts from foreign governments or officials without permission from Congress. Despite this, Trump was allowed to continue his blatant corruption, even as it violated the letter of the law.

    If Trump wins in November, there is little reason to believe he will change his behavior or how he handles his business.

    Disregarding the Rule of Law

    While Trump was certainly corrupt during his presidency, that was far from the only problem that he brought to the table. During his time in office, he repeatedly insisted that he had almost unlimited power. In one instant, Trump claimed that Article II of the Constitution meant that “…I have the right to do whatever I want as President.” That is not what Article II says, but Trump’s claims to near unlimited power illustrate his larger desire to extend and abuse the presidency’s powers.

    Even now, Trump claims he has absolute immunity from prosecution for his involvement in January 6th. To Trump, if a President does it, it isn’t illegal. This attitude led Trump to disregard any limitation placed on him by the law. Trump refused to follow the law, even for simple things like maintaining documents. He consistently ripped up and destroyed official documents, ripping them on a whim, even as the Presidential Records Act required him to preserve and maintain them. It got so bad that staffers in the White House had to tape the documents together or grab them before Trump could rip them all over again. These blatant violations of the law were common and seemed to be a constant component of Trump’s conduct during his time in office. He never wanted to be limited by the rule of law or uphold said laws. To Trump, the law was an extension of his will, not the other way around.

    Eventually, this attitude and arrogance led him to view every bit of his presidential power to achieve his desired ends, regardless of whether he served the nation’s interest. This was especially true when he withheld critical aid for Ukraine, which Congress authorized, and then proceeded to try and get then newly elected President Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden. A whistleblower came forward and issued a complaint against Trump, accusing him of soliciting a foreign power to interfere in the election.

    Once it was revealed that Trump had seemingly used his power to try and influence the Ukrainian government to attack his political rival, Trump was impeached for the first time, though he was later acquitted. He would be impeached again after the attack on the Capitol on January 6th, as House Democrats charged him with inciting the attack. To date, Trump is the only President in American history to have been impeached twice.

    If Trump is allowed to hold office again, this complete and utter disregard for the rule of law will return. Anyone under the impression that Trump will uphold the rule of law if elected is operating in another reality. Trump is a major threat to the very institutions he seeks to control again, and every American should remember that come election day.

    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    “2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling.” https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden (April 24, 2024).

    Alemany, Jacqueline. 2024. “Report: Trump Businesses Received $7.8 Million in Foreign Payments during Presidency.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/04/report-trump-businesses-received-78-million-foreign-payments-during-presidency/ (April 24, 2024).

    Arnsdorf, Isaac. 2017. “Trump Asks Public for Blind Trust.” POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/donald-trump-business-conflicts-interest-233520 (April 24, 2024).

    Berenson, Tessa. 2021. “Donald Trump Impeached a Second Time in Historic House Vote.” TIME. https://time.com/5928988/donald-trump-impeached-second-time/ (April 24, 2024).

    “Biden vs. Trump Polls – The Hill and DDHQ.” The Hill. https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/biden-trump-general/ (April 24, 2024).

    Brice-Saddler, Michael. “Trump Says Constitution Gives Him Power to ‘Do Whatever I Want’ – The Washington Post.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/23/trump-falsely-tells-auditorium-full-teens-constitution-gives-him-right-do-whatever-i-want/ (April 24, 2024).

    Demirjian, Karoun, et al., 2019. “Trump Ordered Hold on Military Aid Days before Calling Ukrainian President, Officials Say.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-ordered-hold-on-military-aid-days-before-calling-ukrainian-president-officials-say/2019/09/23/df93a6ca-de38-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html (April 24, 2024).

    Fandos, Nicholas. 2021. “How to Impeach a President in 12 Days: Here’s What It Would Take.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/us/politics/impeachment-president-trump-capitol.html (April 24, 2024).

    Farrington, Dana. 2019. “Trump Impeachment: A Guide To Key People, Facts And Documents.” NPR. https://www.npr.org/2019/10/28/771287237/trump-impeachment-inquiry-a-guide-to-key-people-facts-and-documents (April 24, 2024).

    Herb, Jeremy, and Manu Raju. “Trump Impeachment: House Delivers Article to Senate on Monday Triggering Only 4th Such Trial in US History | CNN Politics.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/25/politics/impeachment-article-senate-house/index.html (April 24, 2024).

    Kelly, Amita. 2019. “READ: White House Account Of President Trump’s Call With Ukraine’s Leader.” NPR. https://www.npr.org/2019/09/25/764052120/read-transcript-of-president-trumps-call-with-ukraine-s-leader (April 24, 2024).

    Merrill, Curt, and Zachary Wolf. “Whistleblower Complaint, Annotated.” https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/09/politics/whistleblower-complaint-annotated/ (April 24, 2024).

    “Michigan : President: General Election : 2024 Polls.” 2018. FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ (April 24, 2024).

    Naftali, Tim. 2021. “The Worst President in History.” The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/trump-worst-president-history/617730/ (April 24, 2024).

    Parker, Ashley, et al., 2022. “Donald Trump Spent His Whole Presidency Ripping up Documents That Aides Had to Tape Back Together – The Washington Post.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/05/trump-ripping-documents/ (April 24, 2024).

    Savage, Charlie. 2024. “Trump’s Immunity Claim Joins His Plans to Increase Executive Power.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/us/trump-immunity-president-supreme-court.html (April 24, 2024).

    Teachout, Zephyr, and Seth Tillman. “Interpretation: The Foreign Emoluments Clause: Article I, Section 9, Clause 8 | Constitution Center.” National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org. https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/articles/article-i/clauses/759 (April 24, 2024).

  • The TikTok Ban is a Wasted Opportunity

    The TikTok Ban is a Wasted Opportunity

    The House just passed a de facto ban on TikTok. They missed a massive opportunity

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    By ByteDance Ltd – https://www.tiktok.com/, Public Domain, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63490775


    The House of Representatives officials passed the so-called TikTok ban in a vote of 360 to 58. The legislation now goes to the Senate and would require TikTok’s parent company, Byte Dance, to sell the social media app or face the app’s eventual removal from app stores throughout the United States. Supporters of the ban are sure to celebrate, but the truth is that Congress has missed a massive opportunity.

    While much of the coverage surrounding TikTok focused on whether or not it will be banned, or if it is even legal to do so, said coverage would’ve been better focused on the way TikTok’s controversial data policies could allow the federal government to regulate social media in general.

    Supporters of the ban argue that TikTok’s parent company, Byte Dance, is beholden to the Chinese government and that allowing it to remain means Americans lose their data security. This would hold water if the companies remaining after the ban constantly violate American privacy.

    The sad reality is that Americans don’t have data security. Apps like Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, and many more routinely violate American’s privacy. In one instance, Mark Zuckerberg used data gathered on Facebook users, giving it to companies he liked and worked with. In 2022, Snapchat agreed to pay $35 million for illegally collecting users’ biometric data. Instagram, which is owned by Meta, who owns Facebook, regularly documented children under the age of 13 and kept their data without their consent.

    Again and again, Americans have had their privacy and their personhood used in the name of corporate profit and greed. Americans face a genuine security threat through social media apps. The focus on TikTok, therefore, could have been an opportunity to expose and rectify the long-standing abuses by social media companies across the board. Had the attention on TikTok been focused on establishing legislation enshrining privacy rights for all Americans, such as in the European Union, Americans could have enjoyed greater freedom and security without worrying about invasive social media apps.

    Instead, the House decided to single out TikTok, thanks in part to the influence of Meta lobbyists. In one instance, Facebook hired a GOP firm, known simply as Targeted Victory, to attack TikTok as a threat to the public.

    The Washington Post’s Taylor Lorenz and Drew Harwell reported:

    Facebook parent company Meta is paying one of the biggest Republican consulting firms in the country to orchestrate a nationwide campaign seeking to turn the public against TikTok.

    The campaign includes placing op-eds and letters to the editor in major regional news outlets, promotingdubious stories about alleged TikTok trends that actually originated on Facebook, and pushing to draw political reporters and local politicians into helping take down its biggest competitor. These bare-knuckle tactics, long commonplace in the world of politics, have become increasingly noticeable within a tech industry where companies vie for cultural relevance and come at a time when Facebook is under pressure to win back young users.

    Employees with the firm, Targeted Victory, worked to undermine TikTok through a nationwide media and lobbying campaign portraying the fast-growing app, owned by the Beijing-based company ByteDance,as a danger to American children and society, according to internal emails shared with The Washington Post.

    These efforts by Facebook and its allies illustrate that far from being a matter of national security, the push for the ban is part of a larger effort by TikTok’s competitors to eliminate a rival, not to protect Americans. Instead of listening to Americans who overwhelmingly support stronger protections for data privacy, the House, and possibly the Senate, has elected to focus on a single app when the entire social media apparatus is the problem.

    It is increasingly clear that the government thus far shows no interest in fixing our current situation and even less interest in challenging the social media industry. It is easier for them to focus on one company and throw it to the curb than it is to fix the problem, and thus far, that seems to be the path they have taken.

    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    Angwin, Julia. 2024. “Opinion | Why Are Lawmakers Trying to Ban TikTok Instead of Doing What Voters Actually Want?” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/opinion/tiktok-ban-house-vote.html (April 23, 2024).

    Bomboy, Scott. 2024. “A National TikTok Ban and the First Amendment | Constitution Center.” National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org. https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/a-national-tiktok-ban-and-the-first-amendment (April 23, 2024).

    Colleen, Mclain, et al., 2023. “1. Views of Data Privacy Risks, Personal Data and Digital Privacy Laws.” Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/10/18/views-of-data-privacy-risks-personal-data-and-digital-privacy-laws/ (April 23, 2024).

    “European Union – Data Privacy and Protection.” https://www.trade.gov/european-union-data-privacy-and-protection (April 23, 2024).

    Farivar, Cyrus, and Olivia Solon. 2019. “Mark Zuckerberg Leveraged Facebook User Data to Fight Rivals and Help Friends, Leaked Documents Show.” NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/mark-zuckerberg-leveraged-facebook-user-data-fight-rivals-help-friends-n994706 (April 23, 2024).

    Hadero, Haleluya. 2024. “A Bill That Could Ban TikTok Advances to the Senate. What’s next?” AP News. https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-bytedance-bill-divest-5b5a685e8f1e19d22182d62526bf19b8 (April 23, 2024).

    Lorenz, Taylor, and Drew Harwell. 2022. “Facebook Paid GOP Firm to Malign TikTok.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/30/facebook-tiktok-targeted-victory/ (April 23, 2024).

    Ohlheiser, A. W. 2024. “Banning TikTok Would Be Both Ineffective and Harmful.” Vox. https://www.vox.com/technology/24100104/banning-tiktok-us-senate-ineffective-and-harmful-bill (April 23, 2024).

    “Questions and Answers – Data Protection Reform.” European Commission – European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_15_6385 (April 23, 2024).

    Sato, Mia. 2022. “Snap Agrees to $35 Million Settlement over Privacy Lawsuit – The Verge.” The Verge. https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/23/23318545/illinois-snapchat-biometric-privacy-lawsuit-settlement-facebook-location-tracking (April 23, 2024).

    Singer, Natasha. 2023. “At Meta, Millions of Underage Users Were an ‘Open Secret,’ States Say.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/25/technology/instagram-meta-children-privacy.html (April 23, 2024).

    Warburton, Moira. 2024. “What the Proposed US House Bills Could Mean for TikTok’s Future, Ukraine, and Israel | Reuters.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/whats-us-houses-foreign-aid-bills-ukraine-israel-taiwan-2024-04-17/ (April 23, 2024).

    Yang, Maya. 2024. “US House Passes Bill That Could Lead to Total TikTok Ban.” The Observer. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/20/us-house-tiktok-byte-dance (April 23, 2024).

    Zahn, Max. “Congress Seems Poised to Pass Potential TikTok Ban in US. How Would It Work?” ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/congress-potential-tiktok-ban-how-would-it-work/story?id=109490158 (April 23, 2024).

  • Marjorie Taylor Greene Wants To Withdraw from NATO: A Disastrous Idea

    Marjorie Taylor Greene Wants To Withdraw from NATO: A Disastrous Idea

    Rep. Greene is at it again with her isolationist nonsense

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    U.S. House of Representatives, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    Amidst one of the largest military conflicts to plague Europe since World War 2, one would reasonably hope for wise and controlled leadership. Unfortunately, some of our leaders in the GOP have demonstrated that no such wisdom is present, and one of the best examples of this is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). Who, in a perfect encapsulation of her uselessness, attached an amendment to a bill for Ukrainian aid that would require President Biden to withdraw from NATO. The move by Rep. Greene is yet another example of her pointless and unending attempts to control foreign policy, of which she knows nothing. 

    Absurdity and Ignorance

    Rep. Greene is not new to making absurd arguments, both when it comes to foreign policy and when it comes to politics in general. Infamously, she claimed that the California forest fires in 2018 were the product of space lasers involving the Rothschilds, prompting many to refer to her conspiracy theory as “Jewish Space Lasers.” Greene is not fond of being questioned about this. 

    However, it is not merely the crazy postings of Greene’s past that are important here. Greene has repeatedly called for the United States’ exit from NATO and for that ridiculous position to be implemented. In July of last year, Greene argued that the United States should leave NATO because, according to her, it is not a “reliable partner” and that NATO wasn’t paying its fair share of the alliance’s defense spending. 

    This argument largely rests on an ongoing complaint by former President Trump, who has criticized NATO members for not contributing 2 percent of their GDP to their defense, and on one occasion, he insisted that he would let Russia “…do whatever the hell they want,” to NATO members unless NATO pays for the protection. It is worth noting that Trump’s understanding of NATO’s spending is, at best, akin to a shakedown and, at worst, is downright incoherent. 

    The NATO goal of having its members pay 2 percent of their GDP towards their defense is far more complicated than Trump and Greene acknowledge. Firstly, the goal is aspirational and optional for membership in the alliance. Nothing in the NATO Charter, which we signed and ratified in 1949, requires that a nation meet that goal. No legal requirement exists for a nation to spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense. Furthermore, the payments are not made to the United States but are part of each nation’s spending budget. When Trump says that a nation has to pay for protection, he is fundamentally misunderstanding or willfully disregarding the facts of how NATO funds itself. I wouldn’t be surprised if Greene were making the same error. 

    Finally, while most NATO members don’t meet this threshold, they are improving. In 2023, 11 members met that threshold, and NATO expects that 18 members will meet this goal this year. The simple reality is that NATO members are working to achieve this goal and are under no obligation to do so simply because Trump thinks NATO members owe him money. Removing the U.S. from such an important alliance on such a ridiculous basis would not only undermine America’s reputation on the world stage, it would be disastrous to global stability. 

    Why America Needs to Stay in NATO

    While it may sound as though I am arguing for simply maintaining the status quo, that is not the case. NATO’s presence and continued existence are influenced by changing factors as much as any other organization on Earth and deserve to be treated with proper care and consideration. What Rep. Greene and former President Donald Trump are putting forward is a position of isolationism based on false pretenses and grievances. 

    Currently, Ukraine is facing a major conflict, the likes of which hasn’t struck Europe since World War 2, and it is the responsibility of every public servant in our government to be able to respond accordingly where they are able. NATO serves as a check on the threat of Russian aggression, which has been a constant problem for the last several decades, even if members of Congress and former presidents are unwilling to admit it. Staying in NATO means supporting a flawed but improving alliance that ensures a stronger and more deliberative force checks Russian aggression. 

    And make no mistake, Russian aggression is a problem. Whether it is its illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 or its invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russia has consistently demonstrated that it is willing and able to violate the sovereignty of nations that it deems beneath it. If we are to have a safer and more stable world, it starts with opposing and containing Russian aggression. So long as Greene and Trump’s view of foreign policy remains, that goal will remain impossible. 

    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    “Acyn on X: ‘Greene: My Amendment Directs the President to Withdraw the United States from NATO. They Are Not a Reliable Partner… Https://T.Co/cnv1OFAMaT’ / X.” https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1678850513507602432 (April 18, 2024).

    Blake, Aaron. 2024. “Analysis | Republicans Begin to Target Putin ‘Apologists’ in Their Midst.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/16/republicans-begin-target-putin-apologists-their-midst/ (April 18, 2024).

    Dale, Daniel. “Fact Check: Debunking Five False Trump Claims about NATO | CNN Politics.” https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/politics/fact-check-trump-nato/index.html (April 18, 2024).

    Dickinson, Peter. 2021. “The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s Green Light.” Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/ (April 18, 2024).

    Fortinsky, Sarah. 2024. “Moskowitz Trolls Greene with Foreign Aid Amendments.” The Hill. https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4602827-moskowitz-trolls-greene-with-foreign-aid-amendments/ (April 18, 2024).

    Galston, William. 2023. “Republicans Are Turning against Aid to Ukraine.” Brookings Institute. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/republicans-are-turning-against-aid-to-ukraine/ (April 18, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. “Genocide Accusations in Ukraine Explained.” The Observer. https://uisobserver.com/news/2022/04/15/genocide-accusations-in-ukraine-explained/ (April 18, 2024).

    Lotz, Avery. 2024. “House Intelligence Committee Chair Says Russian Propaganda Has Spread through Parts of GOP | CNN Politics.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/07/politics/mike-turner-russia-ukraine-propaganda-gop-cnntv/index.html (April 18, 2024).

    Myers, Steven Lee, and Ellen Barry. 2014. “Putin Reclaims Crimea for Russia and Bitterly Denounces the West.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine.html (April 18, 2024).

    NATO. “The North Atlantic Treaty.” NATO. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm (April 18, 2024).

    “NATO – Declassified: United States and NATO – 1949.” https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_162350.htm (April 18, 2024).

    Rissman, Kelly. “Marjorie Taylor Greene Introduces Nato Amendment Directing Biden to Withdraw | The Independent.” https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-nato-biden-b2373800.html (April 18, 2024).

    Shepard, Katie. 2021. “Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Rebuffs Reporter, Deputy Threatens Journalist’s Arrest over Town-Hall Question – The Washington Post.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/28/marjorie-taylor-greene-reporter-arrest/ (April 18, 2024).

    Siebold, Sabine, and John Irish. 2024. “NATO Chief Says Europe Meeting Spending Targets after Trump Comments.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-chief-says-18-countries-meet-2-military-spending-target-2024-02-14/ (April 18, 2024).

    Singh, Kanishka. 2024. “Trump Again Conditions US Help to NATO Allies on Their Paying ‘Fair Share.’” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-again-conditions-us-help-nato-allies-their-paying-fair-share-2024-03-19/ (April 18, 2024).

    Slisco, Alisa. “Marjorie Taylor Greene Calls for U.S. Withdrawal From NATO.” https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-us-withdrawal-nato-1812339 (April 18, 2024).

    Viebeck, Elise. “Dana Rohrabacher, a pro-Russia Republican, Narrowly Loses House Seat – The Washington Post.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dana-rohrabacher-a-pro-russia-republican-narrowly-loses-house-seat/2018/11/10/97b12136-e44a-11e8-8f5f-a55347f48762_story.html (April 18, 2024).

    Zengerle, Patricia. 2024. “US Aid to Ukraine Moves Closer to Possible Passage.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-aid-ukraine-moves-closer-possible-passage-2024-04-18/ (April 18, 2024).

  • The Trump Trial Matters

    The Trump Trial Matters

    While it is difficult to say what will happen, nobody can deny the significance of a former President on trial.

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

    With Trump’s trial now starting, there has been intense speculation about the potential results and whether or not they will matter when November arrives. The historic trial almost certainly will provoke differing opinions across the political spectrum, but one thing remains undeniable: This trial matters. 

    Trump Won’t Be Able to Control the Trial

    While former President Trump has spent much of his time both in and out of office avoiding the consequences of his actions, such as in his impeachment proceedings, it is unlikely that he will be able to control the trial’s proceedings. 

    While Trump has been mocked for seemingly falling asleep in court, it is more important to note another part of Trump’s courtroom behavior: his outbursts. In one instance, a potential juror was asked about social media posts she made, and Trump attempted to say something to her. While it is unclear what was said, it was enough to cause Judge Merchan to admonish Trump and his lawyers, warning that further attempts to intimidate jurors wouldn’t be tolerated. 

    It is not the first time Trump has gotten into trouble in court for his conduct. During his defamation trial with E. Jean Carroll, Trump repeatedly got into spats with Judge Lewis A. Kaplan, who had to threaten to kick him from the proceedings. He also got into a spat with the Judge in his civil fraud case. 

    These outbursts are interesting and arguably amusing, but what matters here is that they demonstrate Trump’s unease at being faced with situations he can’t control. Judge Merchan’s warning about any attempts to intimidate jurors also shows that Trump can face consequences for any attempt to disrupt the proceedings. Previously, Judge Merchan warned the former President that he could face punishment if Trump weren’t in the courtroom daily. 

    These limitations on Trump’s usually chaotic persona mean that he can’t use the court as a campaign rally, forcing him and his lawyers to address the charges in the case head-on. Failure to do so could lead to a guilty verdict or a contempt of court charge. Judge Merchan has warned Trump of that very fact, threatening to throw him in jail if he failed to compose himself in court.

    A Historic but Uncertain Outcome

    It is hard to tell if the jury will convict Trump in this case. The jury currently comprises only seven members, and the trial is expected to last up to six weeks. Neither side has begun their arguments yet, and it is unclear how strong the prosecution’s arguments will be. However, what is clear is that Trump’s trial is set to be historic and dramatic. 

    The trial will not be televised, but every moment will be evaluated piece by piece—every outburst, confrontation, contentious argument, and ruling. Nothing in this case will go unscrutinized, and that makes it all the more important. How the prosecution and Judge handle Trump in court could either make or break the case. Trump may try to force the Judge’s hand with further outbursts, potentially forcing a contempt charge and creating an opportunity for the former President to claim persecution and incense his supporters. 

    Whatever happens, Trump’s trial is one for the ages. 

    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    Blake, Aaron. 2024. “Analysis | Trump’s Increasing Court Outbursts Come with Increasing Risks — for All.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/17/trump-courtroom-outbursts/ (April 17, 2024).

    Doherty, Erin. 2024. “‘Your Client Is a Criminal Defendant’: N.Y. Judge Denies Trump Team Request to Attend SCOTUS Oral Arguments.” Axios. https://www.axios.com/2024/04/15/trump-new-york-criminal-trial-scotus-oral-arguments (April 18, 2024).

    Haberman, Maggie. 2024. “A Weary Trump Appears to Doze Off in Courtroom Ahead of Criminal Trial.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/nyregion/trump-asleep-criminal-trial.html (April 18, 2024).

    Jacobs, Shayna. “Judge Threatened to Eject Trump during E. Jean Carroll Defamation Trial – The Washington Post.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/17/trump-defamation-trial-carroll-new-york/ (April 18, 2024).

    Orden, Erica. 2024. “Trump Lashes out at Judge in Closing Arguments of Civil Fraud Trial.” POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/11/trump-lashes-out-at-judge-in-closing-arguments-of-civil-fraud-trial-00135108 (April 17, 2024).

    Reiss, Adam, et al., 2024. “Fiery Exchanges over Facebook Posts and Trump’s Behavior Mark Second Day of Trial.” NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-hush-money-trial-jury-selection-day-2-rcna147940 (April 18, 2024).

    Shabad, Rebecca. 2024. “An Oncology Nurse, a Corporate Lawyer and a Man with ‘No Spare Time’: Meet the First 7 Jury Members of Trump’s Hush Money Trial.” NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/meet-the-first-7-jury-members-as-trumps-hush-money-trial-progresses-rcna148198 (April 18, 2024).

    Valle, Jeremy Herb, and Lauren Del. 2024. “Takeaways from the Second Day of Jury Selection in Trump’s Hush Money Trial | CNN Politics.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/16/politics/takeaways-trump-hush-money-trial-day-2/index.html (April 18, 2024).

  • There Might Be Another Speaker Fight

    There Might Be Another Speaker Fight

    After consistent chaos by the House GOP, it looks like Speaker Mike Johnson may face a revolt. It will only hurt the GOP.

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    United States Congress, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    Republicans are at it again. Despite struggling to govern and maintain a strong majority in the House effectively, some Republicans are once again considering removing the Speaker of the House. 

    The GOP Fights Itself

    The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that Rep. Thomas Massie (Rep-Ky) called on Speaker Mike Johnson to resign his position and announced that he had signed on to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga) motion to vacate. The motion, which Rep. Greene filed in March, would remove Speaker Johnson from his position with a simple majority vote. 

    Previously, the Republican Majority removed their Speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Rep-Ca), with a vote of 216-to-210. It was the first and only time a Speaker of the House has been removed in history. While Democrats could theoretically save Speaker Johnson, that is unlikely as they previously voted with Republicans to oust McCarthy amid Republican infighting, using the removal as an example of the large-scale dysfunction with the House GOP. 

    The call for Johnson’s removal comes amid a tense and ongoing fight about foreign aid and spending, which Johnson has attempted to balance as Democrats and Republicans fight over funding for Israel and Ukraine. Despite the clear dangers of letting Ukraine face Russian aggression without support, Republicans have balked at continued support despite the relatively low cost. 

    Johnson has attempted to thread the needle between these competing interests, announcing a plan to separate funding for the two nations from one another in the hopes of passing them on separate grounds. However, that may not be enough for the far-right members of the House GOP. 

    How Not to Govern

    All legislative work in the House would come to a grinding halt, and the next several days or more would be dedicated to finding a new speaker. For context, the last time the GOP had to decide who would lead them in the House, it took four days and fifteen votes to choose McCarthy. Who, again, they later removed. 

    All of this is to say that any move to oust Speaker Johnson would inevitably bring chaos back to the House if it isn’t there already. It would demonstrate again that the House Republicans are entirely uninterested in governing effectively and that their failure to push through a serious agenda is a feature, not a bug of their majority. 

    So, if Representatives Greene and Massie want to remove Speaker Johnson, they should follow through. Nobody is stopping them from undermining their party or illustrating once again why Americans shouldn’t vote for the GOP in November. 

    While it is hard to know for certain if they will cross that line, I can’t help but hope they are foolish enough to try. 

    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    Bennett, John. 2023. “McCarthy Becomes First Speaker in History Ousted – Roll Call.” https://rollcall.com/2023/10/03/mccarthy-becomes-first-speaker-in-history-ousted/ (April 16, 2024).

    Caldwell, Leigh Ann, and Marianna Sotomayor. 2024. “Johnson Gambles on Plan Separating Israel Aid from Ukraine Funds.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/15/mike-johnson-israel-ukraine-aid-house-republicans/ (April 16, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2023. “Vivek Ramaswamy’s Attacks on Ukraine Are Ridiculous.” The Polis. https://medium.com/the-polis/vivek-ramaswamys-attacks-on-ukraine-are-ridiculous-220851f5fac5?sk=b7656030c5ca4ad2796e2f665b8b97dc (April 16, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. “Biden Polling Improves: A Possible Sign for Growing Strength – Progressive American.” https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/03/26/biden-polling-improves-a-possible-sign-for-growing-strength/ (April 16, 2024).

    McPherson, Lindsey, et al., “McCarthy Wins Speaker Election, Finally – Roll Call.” https://rollcall.com/2023/01/07/mccarthy-wins-speaker-election-finally/ (April 16, 2024).

    Quinn, Melissa. 2024. “Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Files Motion to Oust House Speaker Mike Johnson over Spending Deal – CBS News.” CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/marjorie-taylor-greene-mike-johnson-house-speaker-motion-to-vacate/ (April 16, 2024).

    Sotomayor, Marianna, and Leigh Ann Caldwell. 2024. “Momentum Builds to Oust Johnson from House Speakership.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/16/mike-johnson-house-speaker-ukraine-israel-greene-massie/ (April 16, 2024).

    Vergun, David. “Official Says Without U.S. Funding, Ukraine’s Defense Will Likely Collapse.” U.S. Department of Defense. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3679991/official-says-without-us-funding-ukraines-defense-will-likely-collapse/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.defense.gov%2FNews%2FNews-Stories%2FArticle%2FArticle%2F3679991%2Fofficial-says-without-us-funding-ukraines-defense-will-likely-collapse%2F (April 16, 2024).

    Yilek, Caitlin. 2024. “Marjorie Taylor Green Renews Threat to Oust Speaker Mike Johnson – CBS News.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/marjorie-taylor-green-letter-mike-johnson-ouster/ (April 16, 2024).

  • Trump’s New Bible Promotion is Opportunistic and Insulting

    Trump’s New Bible Promotion is Opportunistic and Insulting

    Trump’s Bible promotion is another example of his opportunism and contempt for faith.

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    Photo by Tima Miroshnichenko on Pexels.com

    For years, former President Trump made money by throwing around his brand. The brand of the well-off and successful billionaire from New York. The fighter who got things done and made the difficult deals that nobody wanted to make. Of course, that is a convenient myth for Trump and his political career, but it is how he has made his bread. With a looming trial and growing legal expenses, Trump has again begun promoting a product he hopes to sell for quick cash. This time, Trump is getting into the Bible business.   

    Mixing the Bible and America: Nationalism as Faith

    Just before Easter, on March 26th, the former President released a video on his social media platform, Truth Social, promoting the ‘God Bless the USA Bible.”  With the American flag etched into the leather, these Bibles are bundled with a copy of the Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, the Bill of Rights, the Pledge of Allegiance, and the handwritten chorus of “God bless the USA” by Lee Greenwood. The mix of religious documents and famed American political works demonstrates that Trump is attempting, in his usually blunt fashion, to fuse Christianity with nationalist ideals, even if the effort to do so disrespects Christianity and the Founders he claims to admire.

    As he promotes the new line of Bibles, the former President has declared it to be his favorite book, a statement that is seemingly at odds with his uneasy relationship with Christianity. He has previously raised eyebrows regarding how much he cares for the Holy text, given his struggle to recall a single verse from the Bible. He has also created controversy with his previous statement that he didn’t need to seek forgiveness from God and his unusual remarks about Holy Communion, which he referred to as ‘… my little wine…’ and his ‘… little cracker…” All of this is to say that while Trump has cultivated a following of passionate Christian supporters, his recent moves with the Bible don’t come without controversy.

    Loving Money or Loving Faith?

    Senator and Reverand Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) called Trump out directly, warning that the former President was attempting to sell the word of Christ without showing due respect for its message, saying:

    “The Bible does not need Donald Trump’s endorsement, and Jesus, in the very last week of his life, chased the money changers out of the temple, those who would take sacred things and use them as cheap relics to be sold in the marketplace….The sad thing is that none of us are surprised by this — this is what we expect from the former president.”

    Senator Raphael Warnock, “Sen. Raphael Warnock slams Trump for selling Bibles,” March 31, 2024,

    Senator Warnock is right. While there is nothing inherently wrong with anyone selling Bibles, Trump isn’t merely selling Bibles or promoting the work of a newer adaptation. The word of God belongs to everyone, and nobody should be denied access to the Bible based on their politics. Nor should anyone be denied the ability to help others get that same access.

    Still, there are clear problems. While their website states that none of the money used to purchase this Bible will go to Trump’s campaign and that “…GodBlessTheUSABible.com is not owned, managed or controlled by Donald J. Trump,” the website does note that they have a licensing agreement with the former President for the use of his likeness. They also never mention Trump’s legal problems or whether any funds gained from purchases will be used to assist the former President in court, suggesting that it is likely that some element of this venture will be helpful to Trump’s legal woes as he faces a looming court date.

    I would also be remiss if I didn’t note that the mixing of some of America’s founding documents with said Bible reeks of a vain attempt to coopt both America’s history and Christianity. Combine that with the fact that the God Bless the USA Bible is being sold for $60, whereas other versions of the same Bible can be purchased for less than $30,  and it becomes increasingly clear that this is yet another opportunistic venture by Trump.

    While it is unclear how many will purchase these Bibles or how many are willing to tolerate such blatant misuse of the scriptures, one thing remains clear: Trump is willing and able to sell anything and everything to achieve his ends, even if it means stepping on the very faith he claims to defend.

    If you like my work and would like to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    Brian Krassenstein [@krassenstein]. 2024. “Imagine If Joe Biden or Barack Obama Decided to Fundraise off of Selling ‘God Bless America’ Korans. That’s How Non-Christian Americans Feel about the Trump Bible That He’s Now Selling in Order to Raise Money to Run for President. This Is so Embarrassing Not Only For… Https://T.Co/b8J73OLglJ.” Twitter. https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1772926478621003913 (April 1, 2024).

    Collinson, Stephen. 2024. “Analysis: Trump Is a Ringmaster of Multiple Sideshows as Biden Cranks up Pace of Reelection Bid | CNN Politics.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/28/politics/trump-biden-campaign-contrast/index.html (April 1, 2024).

    “God Bless The USA Bible.” https://godblesstheusabible.com/ (April 3, 2024).

    Gold, Michael, and Maggie Haberman. 2024. “Trump’s Newest Venture? A $60 Bible.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/politics/trump-bible.html (April 1, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024. “Trump Trial Over Stormy Daniels to Start in April.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/03/25/trump-trial-over-stormy-daniels-to-start-in-april/ (April 3, 2024).

    Publishers, Christian Art. 2020. KJV Holy Bible, Giant Print Full-Size Faux Leather Red Letter Edition – Thumb Index & Ribbon Marker, King James Version, Dark Brown. Large type / Large print edition. Christian Art Publishers. https://a.co/d/j8fi6oj.

    Scott, Eugene. 2015. “Trump Believes in God, but Hasn’t Sought Forgiveness | CNN Politics.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/18/politics/trump-has-never-sought-forgiveness/ (April 3, 2024).

    Scott, Eugene. 2015b. “Trump Says Bible Is His Favorite Book, but Declines to Share Favorite Verse | CNN Politics.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/politics/donald-trump-favorite-bible-verses/index.html (April 1, 2024).

    Trump, Donald. “Truth Social.” Truth Social. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112162741690113521 (April 3, 2024).

    Wang, Amy B. 2024. “Trump Falsely Attacks Biden over Easter Coinciding with Transgender Day of Visibility.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/31/trump-biden-easter-transgender-day/ (April 1, 2024).

    Willingham, AJ. 2024. “Sen. Raphael Warnock Slams Trump for Selling Bibles.” NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/sen-raphael-warnock-slams-trump-selling-bibles-rcna145767 (April 1, 2024).

  • The Trans Day of Visibility: A Ridiculous Controversy

    The Trans Day of Visibility: A Ridiculous Controversy

    Using Easter as a cudgel against trans people and egged on by Trump, conservatives have created a nonsensical controversy.

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    Photo by Oriel Frankie Ashcroft on Pexels.com

    Republicans love a controversy. If they can’t find one, it seems they will manufacture one. That seems to have been the thought process this Easter, as Republicans lambasted President Biden for seemingly attacking Easter, with none other than GOP candidate and former President spreading the lie.

    The controversy began over a press release by the White House acknowledging The Trans Day of Visibility as March 31st, 2024. Conservatives reacted with fury. Speaker Mike Johnson, who is facing a potential effort to remove him from Marjorie Taylor Greene, lambasted the move as an attack on the sacred nature of Easter and Christianity, saying, “The Biden White House has betrayed the central tenet of Easter — which is the resurrection of Jesus Christ.”

    The Trump campaign also condemned the move in a statement, referring to it as “blasphemous” and calling on the Biden administration to apologize to “…the millions of Catholics and Christians across America who believe tomorrow is for one celebration only — the resurrection of Jesus Christ.” It is unclear why they felt the need to distinguish between Catholics and Christians, as Catholics are, by default, a Christian denomination, but that didn’t seem to draw as much ire as the mere mention of trans people by the White House.

    It goes without saying that the Biden administration wasn’t instituting an attack on Easter or anything of the sort. The Trans Day of Visibility has been observed annually since March 31st, 2009 when it was first created by activist Rachel Crandall Crocker, who created the holiday to allow trans people to gain recognition outside of the context of discrimination and mourning. Before that, the only trans event was the Trans Day of Remembrance, a memorial to trans people who were murdered. Frustrated by the focus on death and not on life, Crocker emphasized the joy of the larger trans community. At the time, she explained that the holiday “…focuses on the living.”

    By contrast, Easter doesn’t have a situated date for observance and hasn’t since 325 AD, when the Council of Nicaea determined that Easter would be celebrated on the first Sunday after the Spring Equinox. The tradition of having different dates for Easter is, therefore, almost two thousand years old, and any supposed malicious intent by the Biden administration to replace Easter with Trans Visibility is, at best, nonsensical and, at worst, a downright lie. Since the Trans Day of Visibility was instituted in 2009, Easter has only landed on March 31st once in 2013. The idea that there is some plot to erase Easter is ridiculous. 

    It is also worth noting that Biden didn’t ignore Easter at all. If you go to the White House website, you can search Easter and see a statement on March 31st, 2024, praising the holiday and explicitly celebrating the resurrection of Jesus. The statement reads:

    “Jill and I send our warmest wishes to Christians worldwide celebrating Easter Sunday. Easter reminds us of the power of hope and the promise of Christ’s Resurrection.

    As we gather with loved ones, we remember Jesus’ sacrifice. We pray for one another and cherish the blessing of the dawn of new possibilities. And with wars and conflict taking a toll on innocent lives around the world, we renew our commitment to work for peace, security, and dignity for all people.

    From our family to yours, happy Easter, and may God bless you.”

    Joe Biden, “Statement from President Joe Biden on Easter,” March 31st 2024.

    If the Republicans wanted to, they could have easily enjoyed Easter in peace without a hint of division and allowed their fellow Americans to do the same. Instead, they manufactured a controversy that demonstrates not only their ignorance of the larger history of the holiday they claim to defend but also how willing they are to lie about their political opponents to gain power.

    If you like my work and would like to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    Biden, Joe. 2024. “Statement from President Joe Biden on Easter.” The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/31/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-easter-2/ (April 1, 2024).

    Biden, Joe. 2024. “A Proclamation on Transgender Day of Visibility, 2024.” The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/03/29/a-proclamation-on-transgender-day-of-visibility-2024/ (April 1, 2024).

    Bureau, US Census. “Easter Dates from 1600 to 2099.” Census.gov. https://www.census.gov/data/software/x13as/genhol/easter-dates.html (April 1, 2024).

    Carreras, Jessica. “PrideSource – Transgender Day of Visibility Plans Erupt Locally, Nationwide.” https://web.archive.org/web/20130327152446/http://www.pridesource.com/article.html?article=34351 (April 1, 2024).

    Clymer, Charlotte. 2024. “This Rapist Doesn’t Care About Easter.” Charlotte’s Web Thoughts. https://charlotteclymer.substack.com/p/this-rapist-doesnt-care-about-easter?publication_id=20529&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=bjjxr&utm_medium=email (April 1, 2024).

    Elizabeth, Lauren. 2024. “Joe Biden, Easter, and More Manufactured Outrage From the GOP.” Medium. https://xlauren-mx.medium.com/joe-biden-easter-and-more-manufactured-outrage-from-the-gop-ff68b98b15cf (April 1, 2024).

    Hillerbrand, Hans. 2024. “Easter | Origin, History, Name, Facts, & Dates | Britannica.” https://www.britannica.com/topic/Easter-holiday (April 1, 2024).

    Liles, Jordan. 2024. “Biden Did Not Ban Religion from White House Easter Egg Art Contest, Despite False Reports.” Snopes. https://www.snopes.com//fact-check/biden-ban-religion-easter-egg/ (April 1, 2024).

    Lillis, Mike. 2024. “Greene Goes after Johnson on Border, Says He ‘Completely Surrendered.’” The Hill. https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4567513-greene-johnson-border-security-distraction/ (April 1, 2024).

    “Religious-Themed Designs Banned from White House Easter Egg Art Contest.” https://nypost.com/2024/03/29/media/religious-themed-designs-banned-from-white-house-easter-egg-art-contest/ (April 1, 2024a).

    “Religious-Themed Designs Banned from White House Easter Egg Art Contest.” https://nypost.com/2024/03/29/media/religious-themed-designs-banned-from-white-house-easter-egg-art-contest/ (April 1, 2024b).

    “Speaker Mike Johnson on X: ‘The Biden White House Has Betrayed the Central Tenet of Easter — Which Is the Resurrection of Jesus Christ. Banning Sacred Truth and Tradition—While at the Same Time Proclaiming Easter Sunday as “Transgender Day”—Is Outrageous and Abhorrent. The American People Are Taking Note. Https://T.Co/ZCExyVkAVS’ / X.” 2024. X (formerly Twitter). https://twitter.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1774147658841493617 (April 1, 2024).

    “Transgender Day of Visibility | GLAAD.” 2022. https://glaad.org/tdov/ (April 1, 2024).

    Wang, Amy B. 2024. “Trump Falsely Attacks Biden over Easter Coinciding with Transgender Day of Visibility.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/31/trump-biden-easter-transgender-day/ (April 1, 2024).

  • Biden Polling Improves: A Possible Sign for Growing Strength

    Biden Polling Improves: A Possible Sign for Growing Strength

    While it is not clear if this is part of a larger trend yet, it does suggest Biden’s campaign is still competitive.

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    Official portrait of Vice President Joe Biden in his West Wing Office at the White House, Jan. 10, 2013. (Official White House Photo by David Lienemann)

    With the upcoming election on November 5th, Americans have realized they are getting a rematch of the 2020 election, much to their chagrin. With that frustration, it can be easy for people to feel disheartened and even disenchanted with the election, and for some, it appeared as though that was the case, pushing Biden behind his GOP opponent. However, that may be about to change. 

    A Change in Polling

    A recent Bloomberg and Morning Consult poll showed that Biden has begun chipping away at Trump’s lead in key swing states. Describing the shift, Hill staff writer Brett Samuels explained: 

    President Biden has narrowed the gap against former President Trump in six out of seven key battleground states over the past month, according to a poll that hints at a likely close general election race between the two men in November.

    A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll published Tuesday found Biden still trailing Trump overall among all voters in the seven battleground states likely to determine the outcome of the election. But it had good news for Biden, as he chipped away at Trump’s lead almost across the board and overtook the former President in one state.

    The poll found Biden doing particularly well in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    Biden is leading Trump by 1 point in the Badger State after previously trailing him by 4 points in a February survey.

    In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the two candidates are tied, with support from 45 percent of voters apiece. A February poll showed Trump ahead in Michigan by 2 points and ahead in Pennsylvania by 6 points.

    Biden weakened Trump’s lead in Nevada, narrowing it from 6 points in a February survey to 2 points in Tuesday’s poll.

    The incumbent also closed the gap on Trump in Arizona, though he still trails by 5 points, and in North Carolina, where the former President is still leading by 6 points.

    Brett Samuels, “Biden gains on Trump in 6 battleground states in new poll,” March 26th, 2024.

    The poll, which can be seen here, surveyed 4,932 likely voters between March 8th and March 15th and has a margin of 3 points; it suggests that while Biden is far from guaranteed to win the upcoming election in 2020, it shows that Trump’s political success is far from permanent. 

    While Trump has more consistent showings of support in polls, Biden has shown some strength in challenging Trump, with another poll by Morning Consult showing Biden leading the former President 44 percent to Trump’s 43. Still, it remains challenging to determine who has an advantage as much of their differences in polling fall within the margin of error. 

    A Close Race

    While it is tempting to try and predict the election results here and now, there is still a lot of time between now and November. It is also difficult to make one-to-one comparisons with what current polling suggests. 

    While Trump has led Biden in the past and has been more consistent, he doesn’t have a popularity advantage. FiveThirtyEight reports that an average of 52.3 percent of Americans disapprove of the former President. Biden also suffers from weak polling, averaging 54.5 percent of Americans disapproving of his current administration, which is far too close to suggest that either one holds a strong position over the other. The Economist puts the average polling between Biden and Trump at 44 percent to 44 percent. Simply put, Trump will likely lose his lead, and the election will be far closer than he can admit.

    Biden also has a major advantage that he could use between now and November. In February, he raised an estimated $21.3 million, compared to Trump’s $10.9 million, almost twice as much money as the former President could raise. As a total of this cycle, Biden beats Trump again, with an estimated $114.7 million to Trump’s $99.4 milion. While money in and of itself doesn’t win elections, it allows for more canvasser recruitment, more campaign offices, and events, all of which could help improve Biden’s chances before November. 

    Trump also has a disadvantage, which is far from traditional in an election. As I noted in my recent piece on Trump’s trial date, the former President will likely lose valuable time due to his legal troubles. As I explained:

    While it is difficult to fully predict what will happen going forward, especially with the trial, a few things could impact the election results this November. 

    Trump’s absence from the campaign trail could prevent him from lambasting his opponent as much and lead to a decline in his momentum. With the announced trial date, more of Trump’s time will be spent in his defense and not on the campaign trail. That could also mean less campaign-oriented media attention for the GOP nominee and more attention for Biden, allowing the President to recover in polling. Another component of the trial is its potential for negative attention to Trump’s alleged activity with Stormy Daniels, possibly turning independent voters away from Trump.

    Conor Kelly, “Trump Trial Over Stormy Daniels to Start in April,” Mar 25 2024

    While it is difficult to fully ascertain how much Trump’s absence from the campaign trail will hurt him, it is still worth considering. With several months between now and November, every bit of attention is critical to both campaigns and the more time Trump is off the campaign trail, the more time Biden will have to boost his campaign. Trump may be able to turn the trial into a fundraising source, but his momentum will likely still suffer among independent voters. 

    For now, it appears that Biden has closed the gap and could be on the path to further pressing his advantage against his GOP challenger. While there is no guarantee that such a push may occur, the Biden campaign will surely be excited about the path. 

    If you like my work and would like to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    Blake, Aaron. 2024. “Analysis | The Enthusiasm Gap Shadowing Biden.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/08/biden-enthusiasm-gap/ (March 26, 2024).

    “Donald Trump : Favorability Polls.” 2024. FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ (March 26, 2024).

    Easley, Cameron, and Eli Yokely. 2024. “2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump.” Morning Consult Pro. https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (March 26, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024. “Trump Trial Over Stormy Daniels to Start in April.” Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/03/25/trump-trial-over-stormy-daniels-to-start-in-april/ (March 26, 2024).

    Lange, Jason. 2024. “Trump vs. Biden: The Rematch Many Americans Don’t Want.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-dismayed-by-biden-trump-2024-rematch-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-01-25/ (March 26, 2024).

    Morris et al., 2024. “How Popular Is Joe Biden?” FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ (March 26, 2024).

    O’Brien, Rebecca Davis. 2024. “Biden Widens His Financial Lead Over Trump.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/us/politics/trump-biden-campaign-finance.html (March 26, 2024).

    Pengelly, Martin. 2024. “‘Biden Bump Is Real’: President Gains on Trump in Six Battleground States.” The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/26/election-trump-biden-latest-polls (March 26, 2024).

    Samuels, Brett. 2024. “Biden Gains on Trump in 6 Battleground States in New Poll.” The Hill. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4556145-biden-gains-on-trump-six-battleground-states-survey/ (March 26, 2024).

    “Trump v Biden: Who’s Ahead in the Latest Polls?” 2024. The Economist. https://economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election (March 26, 2024).

    Wiederkehr, Ryan Best,et al.,” FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ (March 26, 2024).

  • Trump Trial Over Stormy Daniels to Start in April

    Trump Trial Over Stormy Daniels to Start in April

    As the election in November starts up, Trump is set to face trial in April

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

    Trump will face trial in April. An order by New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan sets Trump’s trial in the Stormy Daniels hush-money case for April 15th after extensive attempts by the former President to delay the trial. It could force the controversial Republican candidate to face electoral and legal consequences in a realm he has no control over. 

    The Case: Stormy and Donald

    The case involving pornographic actress Stephanie A. Gregory Clifford, AKA Stormy Daniels, and the former President have been explosive, both like what is alleged against former president Trump, but also in its implications for the election.

    Trump faces thirty-four charges of falsifying business records concerning alleged hush-money payments to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels just before the election. Prosecutor Alvin Bragg’s office accused Trump of attempting to hide what it called “damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election.” The charges made public on April 15th, 2023, are part of a larger web of legal allegations against Trump and could force the former President to answer questions he likely wishes to keep buried. 

    Trump, famous for his defiant attitude, is likely to do everything in his power to use the case as a political weapon. He pled ‘not guilty’ last year, and after the trial date’s announcement, the former President complained about the trial, saying, “I don’t know how you can have a trial that’s going on right in the middle of an election. Not fair. Not fair. It’s not fair at all.”

    Trump’s lawyers have argued that the trial needed a delay due to new evidence made available to the defense, prompting the date to be delayed from its original time of March 25th. Trump’s lawyers accused Alvin Bragg and his office of unfairly handling documents. However, Judge Merchan has admonished Trump’s attorneys for making misconduct claims by the prosecution without sufficient evidence. 

    The newly established order by Judge Merchan suggests that April 15th, 2024, will be the first day in American history that a former president faces a criminal trial. 

    Consequences For the Election

    While it is difficult to fully predict what will happen going forward, especially with the trial, a few things could impact the election results this November. 

    Trump’s absence from the campaign trail could prevent him from lambasting his opponent as much and lead to a decline in his momentum. With the announced trial date, more of Trump’s time will be spent in his defense and not on the campaign trail. That could also mean less campaign-oriented media attention for the GOP nominee and more attention for Biden, allowing the President to recover in polling. Another component of the trial is its potential for negative attention to Trump’s alleged activity with Stormy Daniels, possibly turning independent voters away from Trump. 

    Of course, this is speculative, and various factors could still impact the race. The New York Times reported that many Americans still suffer long-term disillusionment with public institutions, suggesting that the government’s failure to communicate with the people during the pandemic adequately may lead to increased hostility towards Biden instead of Trump. However, that also remains to be seen. 

    What is clear is that Trump is about to face an authority he doesn’t control. He will have to answer to someone other than himself or his base, something he is loath to endure. Unless some form of judicial intervention arrives, Trump will face the one thing he can’t stand: accountability. 

    If you like my work and would like to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    Cohen, Luc, et al., 2024. “Trump’s Stormy Daniels Hush Money Trial to Start on April 15, Judge Rules.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-ask-judge-delay-or-dismiss-stormy-daniels-hush-money-case-2024-03-25/ (March 25, 2024).

    “Donald Trump’s Tangled Web of Legal and Financial Worries.” 2024. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/legal-troubles-former-us-president-donald-trump-2023-10-02/ (March 25, 2024).

    Freifeld, Karen, et al., 2023. “Trump Charged with Hush-Money Scheme to Boost 2016 Election Chances.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-faces-day-court-historic-us-first-2023-04-04/ (March 25, 2024).

    Jacobs, Shayna, and Devlin Barrett. 2024. “Judge Orders Delay in Trump Hush Money Trial until at Least Mid-April.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/15/trump-hush-money-trial-bragg-delay/ (March 25, 2024).

    Lerer, Lisa et al., 2024. “How a Pandemic Malaise Is Shaping American Politics.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/us/politics/pandemic-politics-malaise.html (March 25, 2024).

    “Trump’s New York Hush Money Trial to Begin April 15.” 2024. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/25/trump-new-york-hush-money-trial-hearing/ (March 25, 2024).

    Wiederkehr, Ryan et al., 2018. “President: General Election Polls.” FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ (March 25, 2024).

  • Candace Owens Finally Leaves The Daily Wire

    Candace Owens Finally Leaves The Daily Wire

    It was a long time coming

    Conor J. Kelly's avatar

    Conor J. Kelly

    By Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America – Candace Owens, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=107821052

    Conservative firebrand and podcaster Candace Owens is officially out at The Daily Wire. While rumors have circulated for weeks about Candace ‘Owens’ relationship with the conservative media company, CEO Jeremy Boreing confirmed Owens’ separation from The Daily Wire in a post on social media, which Owens herself confirmed. While there has been much speculation about what prompted the Daily Wire to terminate its contract with Owens, one thing is certain: it is about time. 

    My Frustrations with Candace Owens

    For those familiar with my commentary on Owens, it will come as no surprise that I am not heartbroken by her departure. She has a long-standing history of repeating absurd conspiracies and repeating racist talking points. In my first response video to Owens, I detailed how she misrepresented and lied about Columbus’ treatment of the Taino people, whom he enslaved, but such misrepresentation was far from unexpected from Owens. 

    What I didn’t expect was her devolution into outright antisemitism. 

    While many a progressive has pointed to her comments about Adolf Hitler as an example of antisemitism, those comments came with some element of plausible deniability, and Owens has claimed that critical context is missing. However, it is unclear what context justifies the statement, “If Hitler just wanted to make Germany great and have things run well — OK, fine,” as acceptable. 

    Owens Falling to Antisemitic Bigotry

    What changed with Owens and her commentary was a devolution into overt accusations against Jewish people as a whole and a weak defense of antisemites like Kanye West, who previously said that he would go “death con 3 on JEWISH PEOPLE.” Owens also went so far as to claim that “political Jews” were creating more antisemitism by hiding behind the guise of antisemitism to cover up their alleged misconduct. Owens had previously also claimed that a gang of Jewish people were terrorizing Hollywood, a long-standing bigoted conspiracy theory. 

    While I am not surprised that Owens has taken her conspiracy theories far beyond the realm of mere curiosity, what has surprised me is how far she has gone to feud with her boss and to ignore how overt bigotry not only in her language but also in the language of the people she defends. 

    In my response video to her and Lauren Chen, I noted that Owens readily hid the nature of Kanye West’s comments about Jewish people in which I stated, “…during her coverage of Kanye’s interview with Tucker Carlson, she deceptively framed Kanye’s commentary on the Kushners as being merely an example of him being harmed by his friends and not as part of a larger pattern of antisemitism…What she did not mention in her review of West’s comments on Tucker Carlson is that West explicitly connected wealth to Jewishness, something that Carlson actively omitted from his work. Granted, this was released a few days after her video, but Owens never updated her viewers about that information once it was revealed to the public, demonstrating that she was never truly interested in informing her audience.”

    Such obfuscation suggests that Owens either doesn’t understand the nature of antisemitism as a historical phenomenon or is actively seeking to avoid addressing it at all. Owens has a lot of bigoted moments, some of which I went over in this article, but it is especially damning that she has gone out of her way to go after Jewish people at a time when Jewish people are facing increasing bigotry. 

    Rebuffing Potential Defenses of Owens

    Owens’ defenders will likely argue that she is merely being critical of Israel, and that alone isn’t antisemitic. They would be correct on that if she only went after Israeli actions relating to the Israel-Hamas war and the alleged war crimes that the Israeli government has committed against Palestinian civilians. 

    Some will remember that I interviewed and worked for a congressional candidate who is intensely critical of the Israeli government and its role in the ongoing conflict in Gaza, but there is a difference between criticizing Israel’s actions and outright attacking all Jewish people and spreading conspiracy theories about said people. Owens has crossed beyond mere criticism. Nothing about what Israel is doing now justifies bigotry against Jewish people. Nor does it justify Islamophobia. Owens fails to address that reality to a spectacular degree. 

    While I don’t expect Candace Owens to go away anytime soon and am disappointed that her bigoted views could spread for so long, I am pleased to see that The Daily Wire got something right. Owens goes far beyond reasoned political discourse and veers into the absurd and prejudicial. She should have been removed from The Daily Wire long ago. 

    If you like my work and would like to support me, you can find the donation site through my Kofi account. I really appreciate it.

    References

    (1) PragerU Doesn’t Understand Slavery Ft Candace Owens – YouTube. 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXRa8LplwR4 (March 22, 2024).

    Candace Owens [@RealCandaceO]. 2024a. “Awaken World, to the Monsters Who Have Caused Immense Suffering to Others via Slander, Threats, and Coercion. Rabbi Shmuley Is One of These Monsters and Any Person Who Defends Him or His Hag Daughter Is Immediately Suspicious.” Twitter. https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO/status/1765906453150191922 (March 22, 2024).

    Candace Owens [@RealCandaceO]. 2024b. “The Rumors Are True— I Am Finally Free. If You Would like to Support My Work, You Can Head to Http://CandaceOwens.Com Where You Will Be Directed to My Locals Page. Or, You Can Give a Gift at Http://Gocandace.Com There Will Be Many Announcements in the Weeks to Come. 🇺🇸✝️.” Twitter. https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO/status/1771175990451958250 (March 22, 2024).

    Contreras, Russell. 2024. “Antisemitic Incidents in U.S. Surged 360% after Hamas Attack: ADL.” Axios. https://www.axios.com/2024/01/10/antisemitic-incidents-hamas-israel-attack-2023-adl (March 22, 2024).

    Cowardly Prejudice: Candace Owens and Lauren Chen’s Pathetic Defense of Kanye West. 2023. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7r1MRy_pu4 (March 22, 2024).

    Giatti, Ian M. 2024. “Rabbi Slams Candace Owens for Remark on Jewish ‘gangs’ Controlling Hollywood.” https://www.christianpost.com/news/rabbi-slams-candace-owens-for-remark-on-jewish-gangs.html (March 22, 2024).

    Griffing, Alex. 2024a. “Candace Owens Accuses ‘Political Jews’ of Fueling Anti-Semitism: ‘Vile, Dishonest, Manipulative People.’” Mediaite. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/candace-owens-accuses-political-jews-of-fueling-anti-semitism-vile-dishonest-manipulative-people/ (March 22, 2024).

    Griffing, Alex. 2024b. “Candace Owens Goes on Screed About ‘Sinister’ ‘Ring’ of Jews.” Mediaite. https://www.mediaite.com/news/candace-owens-goes-on-bizarre-screed-about-ring-of-quite-sinister-jews-in-hollywood/ (March 22, 2024).

    Interview with Congressional Candidate Qasim Rashid #politics #news #election. 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEq5tnz2114 (March 22, 2024).

    Jeremy Boreing [@JeremyDBoreing]. 2024. “Daily Wire and Candace Owens Have Ended Their Relationship.” Twitter. https://twitter.com/JeremyDBoreing/status/1771165501160411423 (March 22, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2023. “The Israel-Hamas War Doesn’t Justify Islamophobia or Antisemitism: Act Like It.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2023/12/27/the-israel-hamas-war-doesnt-justify-islamophobia-or-antisemitism-act-like-it/ (March 22, 2024).

    Schorr, Isaac. 2024a. “Candace Owens Endorses Wild, Anti-Semitic Conspiracy Theory About Jews Being ‘Drunk on Christian Blood.’” Mediaite. https://www.mediaite.com/media/candace-owens-endorses-wild-anti-semitic-conspiracy-theory-about-jews-being-drunk-on-christian-blood/ (March 22, 2024).

    Schorr, Isaac. 2024b. “How Long Will The Daily Wire Stand By Candace Owens?” Mediaite. https://www.mediaite.com/opinion/how-long-will-the-daily-wire-stand-by-candace-owens/ (March 22, 2024).

    Sommer, Will. 2024. “Candace Owens Departs Ben Shapiro’s Website after Antisemitic Commentary.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/03/22/candace-owens-antisemitism-daily-wire-shapiro/ (March 22, 2024).

    Staff, Toi. “Kanye West Says He’ll Go to ‘Death Con 3 on JEWISH PEOPLE’ after Instagram Ban.” https://www.timesofisrael.com/kanye-west-says-hell-go-to-death-con-3-on-jewish-people-after-instagram-ban/ (March 22, 2024).