With the conviction of the former President, speculation about his fate and the election spreads.
Trump’s conviction is here, and with it, the most passionate takes possible with little nuance. While many are happy that Trump is now a convicted felon, with a slight majority of Americans saying that the prosecution upheld the rule of law, it is important to remember that the impact of the conviction in the upcoming election remains unclear. It is critical to remember that the current state of affairs is still fluid.
Trump Going to Jail Remains Unlikely
While many have raised the question of Trump going to prison, and I addressed it to a limited extent when I first reported on the ruling yesterday, it is worth reiterating that Trump’s legal fate remains uncertain.
While Judge Merchan has the power to send Trump to jail for up to 4 years, and former U.S. federal court judge Shira A. Scheindlin has suggested that he may receive a short jail sentence followed by probation, the likelihood of that is small. While Judge Merchan has repeatedly made clear that he doesn’t take white-collar crime lightly and has a reputation as a no-nonsense judge, some factors may influence his judgment against a prison sentence.
Trump is no ordinary convict. While nobody is above the law, the reality is that he is a former president, and that comes with legal requirements for his security. As a former president, Trump is legally entitled to around-the-clock protection by the Secret Service. Whether or not it is popular is immaterial. During his time as president, Trump was exposed to secrets that could undermine our national security if they were released or if they were forced from the former president. While that is unlikely to happen, the risk means that the Secret Service must always ensure Trump’s safety. Putting Trump in prison would mean that the Secret Service would have to not only figure out how to place their agents in places that would allow them to shut down access to the former president but also have to coordinate their resources with authorities in charge of the prison. Never before has the Secret Service considered the possibility of guarding a convicted ex-president.
Another consideration is Trump’s criminal history. While a convict, he is a first-time offender, and taking a staunch approach to the former president could give the impression of zealous aggression on Judge Merchan’s part. The other component is the relatively small maximum sentence of Trump’s conviction. Under New York law, falsifying business records holds a maximum prison sentence of 1 to 4 years.
Putting a first-time offender, the GOP presumptive nominee, behind bars for four years will almost certainly not be Judge Merchan’s approach. It would reinforce a presumption of hostility towards Trump and lend itself to a potential appeal by Trump’s legal team. Already, Trump has stated he will appeal the conviction, and a jail time sentence would almost certainly be challenged. No matter how you split it, it is unlikely that Trump will see a jail cell any time before the election is finished, if at all.
The prosecution isn’t going to give Trump the election.
Another component of the conviction that needs to be addressed is the Trumpist assumption that this conviction will lead to a Trump victory. Several figures, including Trump, have argued that the conviction will benefit his election chances. The far-right propaganda outlet Breitbart News pointed to a rise in fundraising for Trump after the conviction, implying that the conviction will assist Trump in the long term.
There are a few problems with this line of thinking. Namely the emphasis on money over votes. While fundraising is important and a critical factor in any election, it is not the only or main factor in deciding an election. Public perception is, and thus far, the public perception, as I mentioned earlier, is that the prosecution was necessary. Furthermore, the conviction doesn’t currently seem to change much in the eyes of the public, though there are five months to go before November.
Partisanship will also heavily impact the perception of these trials and simply appealing to a base that was inclined to vote for Trump already will not change much. No candidate, whether Biden or Trump, can win the election simply by appealing to their base. Trump needs to grow his support, and thus far, it looks like he can barely do that. The other component, albeit small, is the portion of voters who say they would reconsider their vote for Trump. However, as I noted before: “Previous polling showed that if convicted, 9 percent of Trump supporters would reconsider voting for the former president, though reconsidering doesn’t necessarily mean they would change their vote.” Still, some voters have stated they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he was convicted, with 10 percent of Republicans and 11 percent of independents saying as much.
The other issue is that Trump’s funding narrative is misleading. Biden has consistently outraised Trump and has outspent him. Trump has only outraised Biden once and it was in April, but even with the April aberration, Biden still outraises Trump with $195 million to Trump’s $124 million. Biden also does better than Trump among individual contributors, raising an estimated $71 million compared to Trump’s measly $1 million. Even with his advantage in non-party committee donations, he is still behind Biden.
The reality is that the Trumpist narrative about the conviction’s impact seriously lacks evidence. Leftist writer and analyst Lauren Elizabeth put it into exactly the terms that this narrative rightfully deserves, saying:
Why are some of Trump’s supporters and the media personalities who follow him convinced this could hand him the election when there is no data whatsoever to suggest that getting convicted of 34 felonies is going to endear him to more people outside of his core base? People he’s going to need in order to actually win an election, since his base will not be enough. Who’s to say this doesn’t motivate Democrats in droves to ensure he doesn’t see office again?
Nobody knows for certain how this will impact the election. It was already difficult to ascertain who would win due to the close nature of the races in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, so the idea that Trump will suddenly coast to victory because of his conviction and a supposed martyrdom factor is faulty at best. What we do know is that Trump is guilty and that, thus far, it isn’t helping his chances in the election, but with five months to go, anything can happen.
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References
Berman, Mark, et al., 2024. “Donald Trump Found Guilty on All Counts in New York Hush Money Trial.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/30/trump-guilty-verdict-hush-money-trial/ (May 30, 2024).
Bromwich, Jonah E., and Ben Protess. 2024. “Live Updates: Trump Guilty on All Counts in Hush-Money Case.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/30/nyregion/trump-trial-verdict (May 30, 2024).
Dail, Isabella. 2024. “Breaking down the 2024 US Presidential Election Campaign Funds.” Voice of America. https://www.voanews.com/a/breaking-down-the-2024-us-presidential-election-campaign-funds-/7637216.html (June 1, 2024).
Elizabeth, Lauren. 2024. “No, the Conviction Is Not Handing Trump the Election.” Medium. https://xlauren-mx.medium.com/no-the-conviction-is-not-handing-trump-the-election-f7aab11ea085 (May 31, 2024).
Kelly, Conor. 2024. “Biden Polling Improves: A Possible Sign for Growing Strength.” The Progressive American. https://progressiveamerican322183019.wordpress.com/2024/03/26/biden-polling-improves-a-possible-sign-for-growing-strength/ (May 30, 2024).
Rashbaum, William K. 2024. “If Trump’s Conviction Lands Him in Prison, the Secret Service Goes, Too.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/nyregion/trump-prison-secret-service.html (May 31, 2024).
Santhanam, Laura. 2024. “Guilty or Not Guilty, Trump Verdict Won’t Sway Most Voters, Poll Shows.” PBS NewsHour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/guilty-or-not-guilty-trump-verdict-wont-sway-most-voters-poll-shows (June 1, 2024).
Sullivan, Andy, et al.,2024. “Trump Says He Will Appeal Historic Conviction | Reuters.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-race-plunges-into-uncharted-territory-trump-awaits-july-sentencing-2024-05-31/ (May 31, 2024).
What’s next for Trump? Former Federal Judge Thinks Jail Time. 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkTHtrLnL74 (May 31, 2024).
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