The Progressive American

The Iowa Caucuses are finally here, and it looks like Iowa is going for Trump

By: Conor J. Kelly

The Iowa Caucuses are finally here, with many believing that Trump will take the victory relatively easily. The caucuses are the first of several key events in the parties’ process to determine the nomination for president, but with Trump holding a strong lead in the polls, it could very well determine whether or not his opposition falters or if a more protracted battle is to come.

Many outside and inside Iowa observers have noted that Trump will likely take the nomination. Atlantic Senior Editor and political analyst for CNN, Ronald Brownstein, was so confident that Trump would win earlier this morning that his piece in the Atlantic was titled “The End Is Coming for Trump’s GOP Rivals.”  Brownstein has good reasons to be confident. A recent De Moines Register poll found that Trump was the first choice for 48 percent of respondents, with Nikki Haley trailing by nearly thirty points. DeSantis, once the second runner, now trails behind Haley and Trump with only 16 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers.

Trump may be suffering some issues with enthusiasm despite his commanding lead. That same poll shows that while Trump holds strong, he has seen some of his enthusiasm decline. In December last year, Trump was the first choice for 51 percent of Republicans, compared to Haley’s 16 percent in the same month. Now, Trump sits at 48 percent, with Haley gaining four points, possibly from a mix of Trump and DeSantis supporters switching sides.

Trump has also seen enthusiasm issues regarding loyalty to the MAGA movement, though not necessarily enough to undermine him entirely. Another Des Moines Register poll found that 40 percent of Republican caucusgoers are MAGA supporters. Of the 40 percent that say they are associated with the MAGA movement, 22 percent say they are standard MAGA, and 18 percent say they are “Ultra MAGA.” By contrast, 17 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say they are “anti-MAGA,” and 6 percent are unsure on the subject. A plurality, 38 percent, say they are neutral on the MAGA movement, a sign that Trump may not be as strong as initially believed.

Combine that with the increasingly frigid weather in Iowa, Trump’s momentum may be slowed, though not enough to undermine his chances of victory. The most likely outcome is a Trump victory and more candidates dropping out of the race. The failure of alternative GOP candidates to criticize Trump and present a strong, long-term argument for their respective presidential bids means that, at the moment, Trump is the most likely candidate to win the caucuses and, in all likelihood, the nomination.

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