• Donald Trump is in Trouble: The Race So Far

    With the momentum now shifting toward Vice-President Kamala Harris, Trump’s bid for the White House becomes more difficult

    Photo by Aaron Kittredge on Pexels.com

    The Trump campaign is not going well. What was once a race that seemed almost guaranteed Trump victory, with President Joe Biden struggling to counter Trump’s challenge effectively, has been altered entirely by the arrival of Kamala Harris. With his momentum halted, Trump is facing a painful realization: he could lose yet another election. 

    The Race Has Shifted

    When Joe Biden last challenged Trump, he failed to deliver the momentum to beat Trump. His performance in their first debate—which was nothing short of disastrous—sent a clear sign that an alternative to Biden was necessary. Before long, Trump faced a new opponent in Kamala Harris, with Biden quickly endorsing the Vice-President as the presumptive nominee. It wasn’t long before she quickly secured the delegates necessary to become the nominee earlier this month. Polls soon began to show a shift in the race, and while initially Harris’ gains seemed to be a bump, signs began to appear showing her eliminating Trump’s lead.

    Since Biden dropped out, a clear and present shift has occurred. Whereas FiveThirtyEight last had President Biden trailing his predecessor by 3.2 percent, with some polls showing Trump leading by as much as 5 points, the former President’s chances have taken a turn for the worse. Currently, FiveThirtyEight has Donald Trump trailing Harris by 2.9 percent, with one Emerson poll finding Harris leading nationally by 4 points. Of the more than 20 polls that FiveThirtyEight collected for its average, only 2 had Trump ahead. Neither of these polls showed Trump ahead by much, with Trump only leading by 1 and 2 points, respectively. 

    FiveThirtyEight isn’t the only one noticing such a change. The New York Times poll tracker has Harris consistently leading Trump since August 6th. Trump is facing increased momentum from a younger candidate with a running mate he has failed to attack adequately and an increasingly tight campaign timeline. To say that Trump’s edge is gone is an understatement. He doesn’t have an edge at all.

    Harris’ Gains Momentum


    As I noted in my video responding to Harris’ campaign announcement, the Vice-President doesn’t need to challenge Trump in states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia to win the election. That remains true, as Harris taking Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would get her the electoral votes she needs to win. However, Harris has shown strength in swing states such as Arizona and Georgia. 

    Hypothetical Race via 270toWin-Screenshot by Author

    While the New York Times polling average shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percent in Georgia, Trump’s campaign has seen its lead decline from where it was a few before. On July 24th, Trump led Harris by nearly 5 points, beyond the margin of error in most polls. A similar pattern has occurred in Arizona, with the former President’s advantage of nearly 6 points on July 25th dropping to a mere 2 points. 

    Trump is not merely losing ground in the states he needs to deny Harris to win; he is losing ground that he simply can’t afford to lose. A recent Cook Political Report survey has shown Trump bleeding even more support, both in the environment of a head-to-head race and in a three-way race with RFK JR. In the seven key states that Cook surveyed, Trump led in only 1 state. Harris led in 5, with Georgia being a tie in both versions of the race. Trump needs to turn the race around, or his last chance at the Presidency could turn to ash. 

    Final Thoughts

    While polls are merely snapshots in time, the current situation is far from ideal for the Trump campaign. Vice President Harris is outspending the former President, and the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats slightly more preferred than Republicans, though not by a massive margin. Combine the aforementioned momentum with improving favorable ratings for the Vice President and stagnant ratings for Trump, and it becomes clear that Trump is the one who will have to push for ground rather than the challenger for which he failed to prepare. He can continue to hold onto his personal attacks as much as he likes, but thus far, it hasn’t done him much good, and I doubt it will change anything going forward. 


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 



    References

    Bronner, Lenny. 2024. “Harris Has Opened up a Second Path to Victory, According to The Post’s Polling Model.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/15/kamala-harris-polling-electoral-college-polling-model-donald-trump/ (August 16, 2024).

    “Donald Trump : Favorability Polls | FiveThirtyEight.” https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ (August 16, 2024).

    “Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump.” 2024. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html (August 16, 2024).

    Fedor, Lauren. 2024. “Donald Trump Rejects Allies’ Calls to Tone down Personal Attacks on Kamala Harris.” Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/2ffacba9-d8b6-4adc-9d29-cb0b71b28a13 (August 16, 2024).

    “Generic Ballot : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight.” 2024. Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2024/ (August 16, 2024).

    “Joe Biden Endorses Kamala Harris as the Democratic Nominee.” 2024. POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/21/joe-biden-drops-out-election/joe-biden-endorses-kamala-harris-00169991 (August 16, 2024).

    “Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls | FiveThirtyEight.” https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/ (August 16, 2024a).

    “Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Latest Polls in 2024 Presidential Election – The New York Times.” https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html (August 16, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. “Biden Drops Out: Harris Takes the Reins – The Progressive American.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/07/21/biden-drops-out-harris-takes-the-reins/ (August 16, 2024a).

    Kelly, Conor. “Swift-Boating Garbage: Republican Attacks on Tim Walz Fall Flat – The Progressive American.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/08/09/swift-boating-garbage-republican-attacks-on-tim-walz-fall-flat/ (August 16, 2024b).

    Kim, Seung. 2024. “Kamala Harris Is Now Democratic Presidential Nominee, Will Face off against Donald Trump This Fall.” AP News. https://apnews.com/article/harris-democratic-presidential-nomination-eb43b6b346cc644b2d195315cb2bfb20 (August 16, 2024).

    Mumford, Camille. 2024. “August 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%.” Emerson Polling. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-national-poll-harris-50-trump-46/ (August 16, 2024).

    My Thoughts on the Trump vs Biden Debate. 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGqed1aq4t0 (August 16, 2024).

    “National : President: General Election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight.” https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/biden-trump/ (August 16, 2024).

    “NATIONWIDE LIKELY VOTERS POLLING – AUGUST 14 2024.” J.L. Partners.https://jlpartners.com/nationwide-likely-voters-polling-august-14-2024 (August 16, 2024).

    Rogers, Alex, et al., 2024. “Kamala Harris Spends 10 Times as Much as Trump on Digital Ad Blitz.” Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/691eda86-0124-44d0-bf5a-cb1b0a3ceb8c (August 16, 2024).

    Salvanto, Anthony, et al., 2024. “Trump’s National Lead over Biden Grows — CBS News Poll – CBS News.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-biden-national-07-18-2024/

    Walter. 2024. “The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President.” Cook Political Report. https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/fight-redefine-2024-race-president (August 16, 2024).

    Wiederkehr, Ryan Best, et al., 2018. “National : President: General Election : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ (August 16, 2024).

  • Interview with NBC’s David Rohde: Where Tyranny Begins
    NBC’s David Rohde will be joining Conor on The Progressive American to talk about his new book, Where Tyranny Begins: The Justice Department, the FBI, and the War on Democracy
    By Fuzheado – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69634143

    Good afternoon everyone, 

    I hope you are doing well. This is to update you about a new guest I plan to have on the show. I am happy to announce that I will be interviewing Pulitzer prize winner, author, and NBC National Security Editor David Rohde about his upcoming book, “Where Tyranny Begins: The Justice Department, the FBI, and the War on Democracy,” at 1 PM CST/2 PM EST on the 28th! 

    If you want to preorder the book, you can find it here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0393881962?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_product_details 

    I want to thank Mr. Rohde in advance for agreeing to the interview, and I look forward to talking with him. 

    Be sure to check out the show and keep an eye out for the interview going forward!
    Thanks again, 

    Conor


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 


  • Swift-Boating Garbage: Republican Attacks on Tim Walz Fall Flat

    With little in terms of policy, the Republicans have taken to reviving swift-boating nonsense

    Office of Governor Tim Walz & Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    The GOP has made its move against Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, and to say it is ugly is an understatement. Far from attacking his record or policies, Trump’s running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, has accused Gov. Walz of stolen valor, claiming that he didn’t earn the rank he chose and also claiming that Gov. Walz abandoned his unit before they went off to Iraq. The moves, which have largely been repudiated as quickly as they have been made available to the public, are yet another example of the GOP’s willingness to throw veterans under the bus and revive swiftboating garbage.

    Right off the bat, it is worth noting that I am not, nor have I ever been, involved in the military. I have never served in any unit or seen combat in any way, shape, or form. I am not here to claim expertise on the state of the military or any of the people in it. Rather, I am only addressing this issue as a matter of frustration that a decorated serviceman’s record is being tarred yet again by the Republican Party. This kind of rhetoric has to stop.

    What is Swift-Boating?

    Swift-boating, insofar as it relates to politics, refers to a dirty smear campaign that was orchestrated by the presidential campaign of then-Governor George W. Bush and Republican activist Chris LaCavita. The latter of the two currently serves as Trump’s campaign manager. Under this plan, a group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth smeared then-Democratic nominee and Vietnam veteran John Kerry’s military service, alleging that his service as the commanding officer of a swift boat in Vietnam was fabricated. 

    This smear campaign stuck, and the record of a man who not only served his country with distinction but received three separate purple hearts for his service would end up losing the election to George W. Bush. The results of his presidency would lead the United States into an illegal war of aggression against Iraq and to multiple war crimes being committed in Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib. Now, Republicans are doing it again in the hopes of, once again, undermining the service record of a veteran.

    What is J.D. Vance Saying?

    Vance’s accusations are multifaceted and equally ridiculous. The first accusation, addressed and debunked in a previous gubernatorial election, alleges that Gov. Walz abandoned his unit right before they went to Iraq. The accusation comes from a former Guardsman named Thomas Behrend. Behrend previously claimed that Walz abandoned his unit with his decision to retire before the unit deployed. 

    However, as the StarTribune explained in 2022, there is very little evidence that Gov. Walz knew his unit would be deployed to Iraq or that his retirement papers were processed within the time frame of his unit receiving their official deployment orders. NPR explains in more detail that Gov. Walz retired in May of 2005, two months before his 1st Battalion, 125th Field Artillery, was deployed to Iraq. 

    This would mean that Walz likely made the decision and filed the necessary paperwork several months before any such deployment orders were even on the table. Furthermore, Walz’s former unit wouldn’t be deployed to Iraq until ten months after Walz had retired, making the accusation weak at best and downright disgraceful at worst. Several of his former guardsmen have also pointed this out. This accusation is perhaps one of the most disgusting, as Walz had already served twenty years before 9-11 and reenlisted to serve after the terrorist attacks had occurred. In the simplest of terms, the Trump campaign is trying to paint a man who served two decades and went back to serve again as a coward. Nor is this the only example of Vance’s disgusting accusations.

    The other accusation lies in confusion with Walz’s rank. Gov. Walz served as a command master sergeant, the highest enlisted rank. However, during his retirement process, Gov. Walz retired as a master sergeant for benefit purposes and because he hadn’t completed the necessary coursework to keep the label into retirement. 

    Again, Vance has attempted to portray Walz’s use of the rank, which he undeniably held, as an inflation and a form of stolen valor. To understand how ridiculous this is, consider that the initial biography for Walz that the Harris campaign put up referred to Gov. Walz as a “retired master sergeant.” It currently refers to him as “..an Army veteran who served as a command sergeant major.” The result is the same, and yet Vance, who is running with an alleged draft dodger and a convicted felon, is attempting to use a difference in phrasing and paperwork as a weapon to demean and disparage a fellow veteran.

    The Final Accusation

    The final accusation by Vance and the Trump campaign is less substantive than the previous ones, though it is an example of poor wording by Walz. It largely comes from a video released by the Harris campaign in which Gov. Walz argued in favor of gun control and lambasted what he called “weapons of war.” In a speech, Gov. Walz said, “We can make sure that those weapons of war, that I carried in war, is the only place where those weapons are at…” The issue is obvious here, but the intent is also quite clear. Walz is specifically emphasizing the danger of the unregulated uses of firearms as potentially turning the U.S. into a war zone rather than arguing that he served in combat. In response to Vance, who explicitly referred to the statement by Walz as “stolen valor,” the Harris campaign released a statement by saying:

    “In his 24 years of service, the Governor carried, fired, and trained others to use weapons of war innumerable times. Governor Walz would never insult or undermine any American’s service to this country — in fact, he thanks Senator Vance for putting his life on the line for our country. It’s the American way.”

    In the clearest of terms, Walz referred to the weapons in the context of their warlike nature, not the context of his service. Walz never claimed to have seen combat, and the fact that Vance is trying to portray Walz’s service record in that light is an indictment of his character. If Vance wants to hold his record over Walz, that is his prerogative, but considering his running mate is the same man who referred and denigrated John McCain for being a prisoner of war, I sincerely doubt this attack will go anywhere. 


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 


    References

    Benen, Steve. 2024. “Maddow Blog | It’s Not Just Birtherism Making a Comeback, so Is Swift-Boating.” MSNBC. https://www.yahoo.com/news/maddow-blog-not-just-birtherism-134919944.html (August 9, 2024).

    Eder, Steve. 2018. “Did a Queens Podiatrist Help Donald Trump Avoid Vietnam?” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/26/us/politics/trump-vietnam-draft-exemption.html (August 9, 2024).

    Lawrence, Quil. 2024. “Vance Accused Walz of ‘stolen Valor.’ What to Know about Walz’s Military Record.” NPR. https://www.npr.org/2024/08/08/nx-s1-5068668/vance-walz-stolen-valor-military-record (August 9, 2024).

    Mitovich, Jared. 2024. “Harris Campaign Tweaks Walz Biography amid Scrutiny of Military Credentials.” POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/08/harris-walz-military-credentials-00173236 (August 9, 2024).

    Olson, Rochelle. 2022. “GOP Opponent Who Never Served Criticizes Gov. Tim Walz’s Exit from National Guard.” The Star Tribune. https://www.startribune.com/walzs-24-years-in-national-guard-get-renewed-scrutiny-from-gop-opponent-who-didnt-serve/600216280 (August 9, 2024).

  • Trump Says Kamala Harris isn’t Black: An Absurd Attack
    With a mix of neo-birtherism and condescension, Trump lies about Kamala Harris’ heritage in a disgusting example of racism.
    Image by Lisette Brodey from Pixabay

    In a display of the frailty of the Trump campaign’s momentum, Donald Trump and his allies have taken to downplaying and outright denying Vice-President Kamala Harris’ Black identity. The move, which mixes with a series of unfortunately expected sexist attacks, is yet another example of the continuous appeal to prejudice that is Trumpism. 

    Delusional Bigotry

    The attacks began last month during Trump’s interview with the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ). The interview, which the Associated Press described as “hostile,” led to several complaints by Trump, including an instance in which the former President falsely claimed that the NABJ was having technical difficulties, which delayed the interview. In reality, Trump delayed for over an hour because he and his team objected to live fact-checking of his statements. However, what is more critical here is Trump’s blatant claim that Harris “happened to turn Black..” 

    The claims by Trump are nothing short of a bigoted attack and a flailing attempt to downplay the experiences of Harris’ multiracial background. It is also worth noting that Harris’ father, Donald Harris, is a Jamaican American. Her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was an Indian American.

    In the simplest terms, Harris can be multiple ethnic groups at once and not denigrate either of them by emphasizing one at any given time. It is especially disgusting because the underlying attitude presented here is that Donald Trump, a man who has demonstrated a clear and consistent pattern of racist behavior, is somehow entitled to judge the legitimacy of a person of color’s background. 

    There is no reality in which such an assumption is acceptable, and any argument to the contrary not only betrays a level of bigotry on the part of the person advocating for the said position but also demonstrates a willingness to engage in abject cruelty. It is yet another reason to vote against Trump and the Trumpist movement that has plagued our nation for nearly a decade. 


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 



    References

    “A Speaking Invitation to Donald Trump Splits the Most Prominent American Group for Black Journalists.” 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/trump-black-journalists-convention-nabj-c84311a4e3bec3fe3052236151597d81 (August 8, 2024).

    “Election 2024: Trump Falsely Suggests Harris Misled Voters about Her Race | AP News.” https://apnews.com/article/trump-black-journalists-convention-nabj-1e96aa530e88013ed6f577feaf89ccb6 (August 8, 2024).

    Rashid, Qasim. 2024a. “MAGA Erupts In Racism After Realizing JD Vance’s Wife Is Indian.” Let’s Address This with Qasim Rashid. https://www.qasimrashid.com/p/maga-erupts-in-racism-after-realizing (August 1, 2024).

    Rashid, Qasim. 2024b. “MAGA Racism & Media Failures.” Let’s Address This with Qasim Rashid. https://www.qasimrashid.com/p/maga-racism-and-media-failures?publication_id=2550223&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=bjjxr&utm_medium=email (August 1, 2024).

    “Reversing Course, Trump Admits Obama Was Born in the US | AP News.” https://apnews.com/united-states-presidential-election-general-news-events-61f7085d848248cd98410027d33f2101 (August 8, 2024).

    “Trump Is Making His 2024 Campaign about Harris’ Race | AP News.” https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-nabj-black-voters-race-8d3c811ec6369aadef00e25e29ec0fab (August 8, 2024).

    Tucker, Brianna, and Hannah Knowles. 2024. “Trump Says Harris ‘Became a Black Person’ as NABJ Event Turns Hostile, Chaotic.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/31/trump-black-voters-nabj-harris/ (August 1, 2024).

    “Who Is Donald Harris? Kamala’s Jamaican Dad Is a Prominent Economist | Loop Trinidad & Tobago.” https://tt.loopnews.com/content/who-donald-harris-jamaican-dad-kamala-prominent-economist-4 (August 8, 2024).

  • Who’s Old Now?
    With Harris in the race, the age issue may now be on the other foot.
    By DonkeyHotey – Donald Trump – Caricature, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=87995289

    The shift from the Biden campaign into the newly established Harris campaign has seemingly taken off with increased strength and has put the Trump campaign on its back foot. In particular, Trump’s previous line-off attack against President Biden, his age, has become a weakness. Rather than facing a candidate who would allow him to portray himself as a strong and youthful voice, Trump is now facing a seasoned stateswoman who can call out his lackluster rhetorical flourish. 

    The Age Issue: A Script Flipped

    While previously there have been issues with President Biden’s age, with 72 percent of Americans viewing him as not having the mental capacity to run for president, the former President is now the oldest nominee for a major political party. 

    While it is too early to be totally certain about the nature of the race in the coming weeks, it could serve as an issue for Trump. Earlier on Monday, The Washington Post noted that Trump’s health reports have been relatively hushed, save for an initial update letter from Trump’s physician after an attempt on his life. Such a hushed record after months of hounding Biden for mental health tests and transparency could come back to bite Trump, though only if Democrats can balance their previous defenses of Biden effectively while also drawing attention to Trump’s age. 

     How Democrats Can Sink Trump

    While it will be difficult, using the age issue against Trump is not impossible, nor is it unfair. Trump consistently made Biden’s age a centerpiece of his campaign, using it as a way to avoid substance-based issues. To many, Biden’s age was a non-starter. However, Democrats have to be careful to avoid unduly focusing on the issue of Trump or being too quick to jump on the age train. If Democrats aren’t careful, they can walk into accusations of a double standard. However, suppose Democrats can point out that Trump is not holding to the standard that he set. In that case, it becomes not an issue of the Democrats’ position or, rather, the position that Trump has attempted to thrust upon Democrats. Instead, it becomes an issue of Trump’s inability to earn the position he failed to hold onto in the first place and an unwillingness to prove his worth according to his asserted measurements. If Democrats can navigate this rhetorical distinction, they may benefit from a more youthful candidate and beat Trump with his own words. 


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 

    References

    Faguy, Ana. 2024. “Biden Allies Defend President as Poll Suggests Growing Age Concern.” BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgln3jx47go (July 23, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024. “Biden Drops Out: Harris Takes the Reins – The Progressive American.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/07/21/biden-drops-out-harris-takes-the-reins/ (July 23, 2024).

    Kranish, Michael. 2024. “Trump’s Age and Health under Renewed Scrutiny after Biden’s Exit.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/22/trump-age-health/ (July 23, 2024).

    Reston, Maeve, et al., 2024. “Harris Packs First Rally as Trump Retools for New Opponent.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/23/kamala-harris-wisconsin-campaign-president/ (July 23, 2024).

    “The Attempt on Trump’s Life Is Unacceptable.” 2024. The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/07/15/the-attempt-on-trumps-life-is-unacceptable/ (July 23, 2024).

  • Biden Drops Out: Harris Takes the Reins
    In a historic and shocking move, Biden leaves the Presidential race. Kamala Harris is gathering support
    Vice President Kamala Harris takes her official portrait Thursday, March 4, 2021, in the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

    President Joe Biden announced in a historic move that he wouldn’t seek the Democratic Party’s nomination. Instead, choosing to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for President. The move, which has been speculated about since a difficult debate performance three weeks ago, will almost certainly change the nature of the race going forward. Here’s what that means.

    My Mistake

    Right off the bat, I would be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge my shock at the situation. In my initial response to President Biden’s disastrous debate with former President Donald Trump, I argued that Biden didn’t need to drop out and referred to the early calls as “a massive overreaction.” That has proven to be off-base and incorrect. In the simplest of terms, I was wrong. 

    Normally, I would expect a party to stand by its incumbent. Losing the incumbency advantage is a massive risk, especially when it means standing against someone as toxic and volatile as Donald Trump. The incumbency advantage comes with the power of name recognition and the ability to fund a larger campaign, something Biden excelled at. 

    However, money and name recognition do not automatically guarantee success in an election, especially when your candidate has not seen a serious lead against his Republican challenger. It was that failure that persuaded Biden to drop his race. I overemphasized the incumbency advantage, that will not be as important in the upcoming race. 

    The Race Going Forward

    While it is difficult to say how the race will go forward with absolute certainty, we live in strange times. There is some evidence that Harris will see some improvement in her chances against Donald Trump. In the case of Pennsylvania, Biden trailed Trump by roughly 3 percent to the New York Times, but when Harris went up against Trump, she was only trailing him by 1 percent.  Additionally, the Times noted that Harris did slightly better than Biden among key Democratic constituencies. 

    According to The New York Times: 

    “In both states, Ms. Harris performed slightly stronger than Mr. Biden with Black voters, younger voters, and women — all groups that Democrats need in order to be successful this fall. And, importantly, those are groups where Mr. Biden appeared to be losing ground.”


    That said, these polls represent only the initial reaction to the newly established election race and not a long-term tracking poll that we can use to fully analyze Harris’ chances at winning the presidency. Moreover, Harris is not guaranteed the nomination. While she has gained some support, many Democrats have yet to endorse her, and the convention is several weeks away. If Vice-President Harris is to turn the tide against Trump, she will have to bank on President Biden’s infrastructure and earn the support of her party and the nation. One can only hope she is successful. The nation’s well-being depends on it.


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 


    References

    A 501tax-exempt, charitable organization 1100 13th Street, NW, and Suite 800 Washington. “Summary Data for Donald Trump, 2024 Cycle.” OpenSecrets. https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race/donald-trump/candidate?id=N00023864 (July 21, 2024a).

    A 501tax-exempt, charitable organization 1100 13th Street, NW, and Suite 800 Washington. “Summary Data for Joe Biden, 2024 Cycle.” OpenSecrets. https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race/joe-biden/candidate?id=N00001669 (July 21, 2024b).

    Igielnik, Ruth. 2024. “How Kamala Harris Performs Against Donald Trump in the Polls.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/kamala-harris-trump-polls.html (July 21, 2024).

    Joe Biden [@JoeBiden]. 2024. “My Fellow Democrats, I Have Decided Not to Accept the Nomination and to Focus All My Energies on My Duties as President for the Remainder of My Term. My Very First Decision as the Party Nominee in 2020 Was to Pick Kamala Harris as My Vice President. And It’s Been the Best Https://T.Co/x8DnvuImJV.” Twitter. https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815087772216303933 (July 21, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024. “A Second Trump Term Would Be a Disaster.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/04/24/trumpdisaster/ (July 21, 2024).

    My Thoughts on the Trump vs Biden Debate. 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGqed1aq4t0 (July 21, 2024).

    Olorunnipa, Toluse, and Patrick Svitek. 2024. “Biden Makes Stunning Decision to Pull out of 2024 Race.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/21/joe-biden-drops-out/ (July 21, 2024).

    Sfondeles, Tina. “Not All Illinois Democrats Fall in Line over Kamala Harris Replacing President Biden – Chicago Sun-Times.” The Chicago Sun Times. https://chicago.suntimes.com/2024-democratic-national-convention/2024/07/21/illinois-democrats-president-biden-dropping-out-democratic-national-convention-kamala-harris (July 21, 2024).

    staff, Washington Post. 2024. “Read Biden’s Letter Announcing He Is Dropping out of 2024 Presidential Race.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/07/21/joe-biden-letter/ (July 21, 2024).

    Wiederkehr, Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King, Dhrumil Mehta and Anna. 2018. “Pennsylvania : President: General Election : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ (July 21, 2024).

  • The Progressive American Update
    With some difficulties to the podcast studio and a planned trip, here’s what’s going on with The Progressive American

    Good morning, everyone,

    I hope you are doing well. I just wanted to let you all know what is going on with The Progressive American for the next couple of days. As you all likely saw from my Instagram post, the podcast studio got a little messy, which I explain briefly in this video.

    While the studio is getting repaired, I will have to make do with what I can for live streams, but I will be releasing more articles in addition to some prerecorded content here on YouTube. I will also be on vacation until Thursday, July 25th.  So while articles will be sparse for the time being, there still will be some content during this hiatus.

    In the meantime, please consider checking out my recent pieces linked below.

    Thanks again for all your support,

    Conor Kelly


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 

  • Pentagon Ends Gaza Aid Pier: The Threat of Starvation
    After multiple complications, the Pentagon has ended a critical source of food to the Gaza Strip.
    By U.S. Central Command Public Affairs – https://www.dvidshub.net/image/8409461/trident-pier-emplacement, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=148447848

    In a horrid display of the increasingly dangerous state of Gaza, the Washington Post reports that the Pentagon has decided to end its mission to provide aid via a pier into Gaza. The decision, which the Post reported earlier this Wednesday, will likely make it increasingly difficult to get critical food and supplies to a struggling population.

    The Aid Crisis: Stubbornness and Cruelty

    While much of the Israel-Hamas War has resulted in civilian casualties from Israeli bombing runs, another component is the risk of starvation. As I noted previously, Gaza’s population, which amounts to roughly 2 million people, is suffering from acute food insecurity. Reports throughout the war have warned about Israeli efforts, both by the government and by far-right groups, to block aid to critical points in Gaza. 

    Earlier this week, The Associated Press reported that far-right Israeli groups, some of them receiving tax-deducted donations from the United States and Israeli governments, have worked to block aid from entering the Gaza Strip. According to the AP, one of these groups still received funds despite sanctions by Washington. While these groups are not directly involved with the Israeli government, that same AP report notes that they have had tacit support from the Israeli government. Israeli Minister for National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has argued for blocking aid to the Gaza Strip, refusing to condemn protesters who have blocked aid trucks.

    Nor is it the first time that In May of this year, Human Rights Watch also noted that Israel violated the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) order requiring the Israeli government to “…enable the provision of basic services and humanitarian assistance.” Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch, Omar Shakir, warned that: “Despite children dying from starvation and famine in Gaza, the Israeli authorities are still blocking aid critical for the survival of Gaza’s population in defiance of the World Court.” While this report also notes that Israel had opened the Erez crossing, they did so largely due to American pressure. Though said pressure has been far from without limitations. 

    After Israel refused to open more land-based paths for aid to Gaza in March, the Biden administration announced a plan to create a pier off the coast of Gaza. However, due to a mix of severe conditions at sea, technical issues, and unsafe conditions for aid delivery workers, the pier has seriously underperformed in its endeavor to provide much-needed aid. USAID, which is responsible for much of the aid operations, warned that “too many aid workers have been killed in this conflict…” and pleaded with Israeli officials to  …“do more to protect civilians and humanitarian workers in order to get the aid in the hands of the Palestinian people.” The end of the pier, which provided an estimated “20 million pounds” of aid to Gaza, would make an already horrific situation even worse. 

    What this could mean for Gaza?

    While the end of the pier won’t end American attempts to get aid to Gaza and aid operations will be moved to Ashdod, a presumably safer location, it is unclear if it will be as effective at providing aid as the now defunct pier. Nonetheless, without increased land routes for aid to get to the people of Gaza and without a sustained ceasefire, the impact of any aid operation will be sadly reduced. So long as the war continues and so long as the Netanyahu administration continues, it is unlikely there will be a serious improvement in Gazan’s conditions. 


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 



    References

    Dadouch, Sarah, et al., 2024. “Aid Groups Warn They Face Looting, Danger in Gaza after Israeli Raid.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/10/israel-gaza-hamas-blinken-netanyahu-gantz/ (July 17, 2024).

    Efron, Shira, and Michael J. Koplow. 2024. “The Palestinian Authority Is Collapsing.” Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/palestinian-territories/palestinian-authority-collapsing (July 17, 2024).

    Federman, Josef, et al., 2024. “Far-Right Groups That Block Aid to Gaza Receive Tax-Deductible Donations from US and Israel.” AP News. https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-aid-humanitarian-nonprofit-69582d193ce270d63d5865ac0ead2df0 (July 17, 2024).

    “Gaza: Israel Flouts World Court Orders | Human Rights Watch.” 2024. https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/05/07/gaza-israel-flouts-world-court-orders (July 17, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024. “UK Foreign Secretary Calls for Ceasefire.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/07/15/uk-foreign-minister-calls-for-ceasefire/ (July 17, 2024).

    Lamothe, Dan. 2024. “U.S. Will Soon End Its Troubled Gaza Pier Mission, Pentagon Says.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/07/11/gaza-pier-humanitarian-aid/ (July 17, 2024).

    Lamothe, Dan, and Alex Horton. 2024. “Pentagon Ends Gaza Pier Mission.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/07/17/gaza-pier-mission-ends-pentagon-israel/ (July 17, 2024).

  • UK Foreign Secretary Calls for Ceasefire
    In a significant shift in the UK’s posture to Israel’s military policy, Foreign Secretary, David Lammy will call for a ceasefire in Gaza.
    By Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street – Number 10 Flickr page, OGL 3, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=150044145

    In a shift in UK politics, the United Kingdom’s foreign minister, David Lammy, called for a ceasefire during a visit to Israel and the West Bank. While symbolic in its influence, the move could signify a shift towards pushing for a hopefully permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Previously, the UK government has hesitated to support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. While former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has encouraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid an escalation in the Middle East, he has also not made any moves to oppose the continued £9.7 million in aid to Israel.

    However, with a new administration, that attitude may change. During his visit, Lammy expressed frustration with the continued onslaught, saying, “The death and destruction in Gaza is intolerable…This war must end now, with an immediate ceasefire, complied with by both sides.” While far from being a perfectly forceful policy shift, the fact that Lammy has been more up-front than previous officials suggests some hope may be warranted, if only with a bit of skepticism.

    Gaza: A Humanitarian Disaster

    Since the terrorist attack on October 7th, which resulted in the deaths of an estimated 1,2000 people, most of whom are civilians, Israel has waged a continuous and extensive bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip. Said bombing has, according to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner, led to famine, which “has spread across the Gaza Strip.”

    Estimates of the death count have varied, with a July 10th count from Reuters suggesting 38,000 dead, with most of the deaths being civilians. In March of this year, UNICEF reported that an estimated 13,000 children have died in Gaza. However, other estimates suggest an even harsher picture. A recent analysis by the medical journal The Lancet suggests that the total death count is almost certainly larger, with scholars arguing that a total death count of “…up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza.” In March, the BBC estimated nearly 2 million people are estimated to be suffering from acute food insecurity.

    What was supposed to be a war to end a terror group has increasingly become a humanitarian disaster without an end in sight.

    Peace at Last? Not so Fast

    While the UK Foreign Secretary’s statements are a good sign, they are not the end of the story. Earlier this Monday, the Israeli government conducted a strike in Southern and Central Gaza, with the said strike coming amid a previous strike that killed at least 90 Palestinians. The strike, which Israeli officials stated was to be directed at Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif, has yet to be confirmed as successful in its goal. Israel has also called for more than 5,300 new home settlements in the West Bank.

    The continued aggression and expansion by Israel, combined with the hesitance of the Biden administration to withhold aid to Israel’s continuous war effort, suggests that further pressure for peace is necessary.


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 


    References

    Al-Mughrabi, Nidal, 2024. “Israel Launches New Gaza Strikes after Weekend Attack Kills Scores in Safe Zone.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-launches-new-gaza-strikes-after-weekend-attack-kills-scores-safe-zone-2024-07-15/ (July 15, 2024).

    Al-Mughrabi, Nidal, Hatem Khaled, Maayan Lubell, and Nidal Al-Mughrabi. 2024. “Gaza Officials Say 90 Palestinians Killed as Israel Targets Hamas Military Chief.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-palestinians-killed-or-wounded-israeli-attack-khan-younis-hamas-says-2024-07-13/ (July 15, 2024).

    Burke, Jason. 2023. “A Deadly Cascade: How Secret Hamas Attack Orders Were Passed down at Last Minute.” The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/07/secret-hamas-attack-orders-israel-gaza-7-october (July 15, 2024).

    Elgot, Jessica, and Jessica Elgot Deputy political editor. 2024. “David Lammy to Call for Gaza Ceasefire in Talks with Benjamin Netanyahu.” The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/14/david-lammy-to-call-for-gaza-ceasefire-in-talks-with-benjamin-netanyahu-israel (July 15, 2024).

    “Gaza Death Toll: How Many Palestinians Has Israel’s Campaign Killed.” 2024. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-05-14/ (July 15, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024. “Israel Could Face Charges from the International Criminal Court.” The Progressive American. https://conorpolitics.wordpress.com/2024/04/30/israel-could-face-charges-from-the-international-criminal-court/ (July 15, 2024).

    Khatib, Rasha, et al,. 2024. “Counting the Dead in Gaza: Difficult but Essential.” The Lancet 0(0). doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01169-3.

    Lidman, Melanie. 2024. “UK Foreign Secretary Visits Israel and West Bank and Calls for an Immediate Cease-Fire in Gaza.” AP News. https://apnews.com/article/israel-uk-lammy-f88dff6235360a838e9d39a5beefce48 (July 15, 2024).

    “UK PM Sunak Tells Netanyahu Middle East Escalation Is in No One’s Interest.” 2024. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uk-pm-sunak-told-netanyahu-that-middle-east-escalation-is-no-ones-interest-2024-04-16/ (July 15, 2024).

    “UN Experts Declare Famine Has Spread throughout Gaza Strip.” OHCHR. https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/07/un-experts-declare-famine-has-spread-throughout-gaza-strip (July 15, 2024).

  • The Attempt on Trump’s Life is Unacceptable
    Trump is a threat to the health of the body politic, but assassination is never acceptable
    Official portrait of President Donald J. Trump, Friday, October 6, 2017. (Official White House photo by Shealah Craighead)

    In a brazen display of horrific violence, a young man attempted to kill former President Donald Trump. During a rally last Saturday, July 13th, 2024, the former President was giving a speech in Butler, Pennsylvania, when shots rang out, and the Republican candidate gripped his ear. Secret service agents pulled him to the ground and covered the former President, and several more shots rang out. Before long, the shooter was killed. For the health of the Republic, such violence must be condemned.

    No Excuses for Assassins and Assassin Sympathizers

    My readers will almost certainly know how I feel about the former President; I think he’s a criminal, a racist, and a massive narcissist who put our nation’s security at risk on a whim. Nonetheless, it is important to reiterate the clear and present danger of inadequately addressing the attempted assassination of a presidential candidate. Failing to adequately condemn the reality of such violence, especially when said violence killed a bystander in the crowd, means setting a poor standard not just for this election but also for elections in the future.

    As of writing, we know little about the would-be assassin’s motives, but what is clear is that the shooting puts the nation at a crossroads regarding political violence. When the assassination attempt was first reported, and in the time since, I have received messages on both sides of the aisle, with one person demanding I switch my party affiliation as if I was responsible for attempted murder or that Democrats generally tried to kill the former President. Conversely, I have both seen and received several messages and posts by people on the left lamenting that the shooter missed. Both of these approaches are completely useless and are unacceptable.

    If we, as a society, permit ourselves to indulge in political violence and celebrate it, we further ensure that it will become acceptable in the future. Biden is 81 and Donald Trump is 78; these two candidates will not be the center of our political world in ten years. What we do here and how we conduct ourselves going forward will necessarily transcend them and their concerns.

    Ask yourselves this simple question: Do you want a political environment where people readily wish death on the opposing candidate or not?

    The future of our country depends on us answering that question and turning away from violence. Trump is a genuine threat to the well-being of America, but if we wish to be rid of his movement, we can’t adopt their tactics.


    If you like my work and want to support me, you can find the donation link on my Kofi link. Thank you, I really appreciate it. 


    References

    Balasmo, Michael, Jim Mustian, Alanna Richer, and Michael Biesecker. 204AD. “Trump Assassination Attempt: What We Know about the Suspect | AP News.” Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5 (July 15, 2024).

    Harwell, Drew, Naomi Nix, and Cat Zakrzewski. 2024. “Liars and Trolls Overwhelm Social Media after Trump Rally Shooting.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/07/15/social-media-trump-rally-shooting-fake-photos-conspiracies-rnc/ (July 15, 2024).

    Johnson, Gene. 2024. “At the Trump Rally, It Was Evening Sun, Songs and Blue Sky. Then Came Bullets, Screams and Blood.” AP News. https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-what-happened-734900d303fcfbf349162047f8059601 (July 15, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2022. “It Got Worse: Trump Searched For Nuclear Records.” The Polis. https://medium.com/the-polis/it-got-worse-trump-searched-for-nuclear-records-7228b4d32499 (July 15, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024a. “A Second Trump Term Would Be a Disaster.” The Left Is Right. https://medium.com/the-left-is-right/a-second-trump-term-would-be-a-disaster-e5d1837bc977 (July 15, 2024).

    Kelly, Conor. 2024b. “Donald Trump Is Guilty.” The Polis. https://medium.com/the-polis/donald-trump-is-guilty-273a45992a0a (July 15, 2024).

    Powell, Michael. 2024. “The Worst Is Not Inevitable.” The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/our-democracy-bruised-not-danger/679015/ (July 15, 2024).